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Polymarket · Tech & ScienceClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 100% | +1 pts | +5 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended | |
| Anthropic | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Alibaba | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Z.ai | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| xAI | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| DeepSeek | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Moonshot | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Mistral | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Company A | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company C | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company D | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company E | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company F | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company G | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company H | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 297d | Nick8585 | OpenAI | SellYes>99¢ | $1,424 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 297d |  noreasapa | OpenAI | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,825 | +$11 +0.1% | 4 |
| 297d | Idontwantausername | OpenAI | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,791 | −$57 −3.2% | — |
| 297d | Idontwantausername | OpenAI | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,807 | +$40 +2.2% | 4 |
| 297d | Dit26978 | Anthropic | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,852 | −$49 −2.7% | — |
| 297d |  zb8 | OpenAI | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,990 | +$10 +0.5% | 4 |
| 298d | wubddh2 fills | OpenAI | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,870 | +$42 +1.1% | 4 |
| 298d |  TraderMurf | OpenAI | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,041 | +$13 +1.2% | 4 |
| 298d | flook | OpenAI | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,402 | −$73 −2.1% | — |
| 299d | AnonymousElephant69 | OpenAI | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,013 | −$19 −1.9% | — |
| 299d | Incognitoo | OpenAI | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,464 | −$36 −2.4% | — |
| 299d | flook | OpenAI | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$25 +2.1% | 4 |
| 299d |  x35602 fills | OpenAI | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $6,542 | +$305 +4.7% | 4 |
| 300d | nndmg | OpenAI | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,856 | +$114 +3.0% | 4 |
| 300d | LL.ETH | OpenAI | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,052 | −$71 −6.7% | — |
| 302d | lopyt | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,250 | +$5 +0.4% | 4 | |
| 303d | joebmx | OpenAI | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,062 | +$62 +5.8% | 4 |
| 303d |  LambdaSquared | OpenAI | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,023 | −$83 −8.1% | — |
| 303d | secondSeek | OpenAI | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,841 | +$104 +5.6% | 4 |
| 303d | anciente | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,023 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 303d | cigarettes3 fills | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,348 | +$55 +0.7% | 4 | |
| 303d | secondSeek5 fills | Anthropic | BuyYes45¢ → 0¢ | $8,489 | −$8,489 −100% | 6 |
| 303d | cigarettes | OpenAI | BuyNo35¢ → 0¢ | $1,393 | −$1,393 −100% | 7 |
| 304d |  77603dad7edbb9a2775c5292 fills | OpenAI | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $6,030 | +$1,299 +22% | 4 |
| 306d | Incognitoo3 fills | OpenAI | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $6,848 | +$939 +14% | 4 |
| 307d | m59 | OpenAI | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $2,062 | −$281 −14% | — |
| 307d | 77603dad7edbb9a2775c529 | OpenAI | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $2,821 | −$407 −14% | — |
| 309d |  uncleroger | OpenAI | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,102 | +$204 +18% | 4 |
| 309d | uncleroger | Anthropic | SellNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,586 | −$237 −15% | — |
| 309d |  shortguy | OpenAI | SellYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,176 | −$256 −22% | — |
| 309d |  1sk | Anthropic | SellNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,331 | −$195 −15% | — |
| 309d | bokaf | OpenAI | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $2,100 | +$400 +19% | 4 |
| 310d |  Syrianbutterfly | OpenAI | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$304 +25% | 4 |
| 310d |  flow-trader-at-optiver2 fills | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,968 | +$23 +0.8% | 4 | |
| 310d |  rtjit | Anthropic | SellNo76¢ → 100¢ | $2,801 | −$898 −32% | — |
| 310d | flow-trader-at-optiver3 fills | xAI | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,655 | +$13 +0.3% | 4 |
| 310d | influenz.eth | OpenAI | SellYes75¢ → 100¢ | $1,801 | −$607 −34% | — |
| 311d |  bamesjond | OpenAI | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $1,253 | +$416 +33% | 4 |
| 312d | uncleroger | Anthropic | BuyNo77¢ → 100¢ | $1,404 | +$419 +30% | 4 |
| 312d | shortguy | OpenAI | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $1,015 | +$343 +34% | 4 |
| 313d | wokerjoesleeper | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,379 | +$11 +0.8% | 4 | |
| 313d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | xAI | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,385 | +$6 +0.2% | 4 |
| 313d | cigarettes2 fills | xAI | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,531 | +$7 +0.2% | 4 |
| 313d | Adrimarket2 fills | OpenAI | BuyYes48¢ → 100¢ | $3,914 | +$4,274 +109% | 5 |
| 313d | cigarettes | Anthropic | BuyNo49¢ → 100¢ | $1,547 | +$1,611 +104% | 4 |
| 313d | GammaTrading | Anthropic | BuyYes61¢ → 0¢ | $2,460 | −$2,460 −100% | 4 |
| 313d | jeny89 | OpenAI | BuyNo62¢ → 0¢ | $1,814 | −$1,814 −100% | 4 |
| 314d | Certify01482 fills | Anthropic | BuyYes57¢ → 0¢ | $3,298 | −$3,298 −100% | 4 |
| 314d | Mature-Planning | OpenAI | BuyYes46¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$1,753 +117% | 7 |
| 315d | Obilic | OpenAI | SellYes39¢ → 100¢ | $1,398 | −$2,214 −158% | — |
| 316d | many | Anthropic | SellYes59¢ → 0¢ | $1,009 | +$1,009 +100% | — |
| 316d | dngza | Anthropic | BuyYes48¢ → 0¢ | $1,163 | −$1,163 −100% | 4 |
| 316d |  fffffz2 fills | OpenAI | BuyYes48¢ → 100¢ | $10,489 | +$11,403 +109% | 5 |
| 316d | Syrianbutterfly | OpenAI | SellYes41¢ → 100¢ | $1,297 | −$1,862 −144% | — |
| 316d | wokerjoesleeper | Alibaba | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,390 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 316d | wokerjoesleeper | Mistral | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,390 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 316d |  Contentious-Dinnerdate | OpenAI | BuyYes48¢ → 100¢ | $1,812 | +$1,970 +109% | 4 |
| 316d | cigarettes | DeepSeek | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,379 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 316d | wokerjoesleeper | DeepSeek | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,390 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 316d | cigarettes | Mistral | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,379 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
This market will resolve to the company which owns the model that has the top LiveBench “coding average” score, as based off the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order. The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for OpenAI means the market gives it about 100%.