Polymarket · WorldClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 100% | +13 pts | +15 pts | 98¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| India | 0% | −1 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Canada | 0% | −1 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Mexico | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| South Korea | 0% | 0 pts | −31 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Australia | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Germany | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| France | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Brazil | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Argentina | 0% | 0 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Israel | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Switzerland | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 418d | France | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,560 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 418d | Germany | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,680 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 418d | Australia | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,795 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 418d | wubddh2 fills | Brazil | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,855 | +$67 +1.7% | 20 |
| 420d | South Korea | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,857 | +$32 +1.1% | 20 | |
| 421d | wubddh3 fills | Switzerland | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,892 | +$205 +3.5% | 20 |
| 421d | India | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $8,404 | +$286 +3.4% | 20 | |
| 422d | wubddh2 fills | Canada | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,439 | +$206 +4.6% | 20 |
| 422d | Canada | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,168 | +$29 +2.5% | 20 | |
| 422d | India | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,818 | +$40 +2.2% | 20 | |
| 422d | Brazil | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,143 | +$54 +1.7% | 20 | |
| 433d | Argentina | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,121 | +$173 +15% | 20 | |
| 439d | China | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,940 | +$60 +3.1% | 20 | |
| 439d | China | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,027 | +$54 +5.2% | 20 | |
| 439d | China | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $3,607 | +$505 +14% | 20 | |
| 440d | China | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $2,759 | −$329 −12% | — | |
| 440d | China | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,540 | +$210 +14% | 20 | |
| 442d | MacMoneysac | China | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$399 +20% | 20 |
| 442d | asdfgo | China | BuyNo20¢ → 0¢ | $1,628 | −$1,628 −100% | 23 |
| 443d | skylove | India | BuyNo77¢ → 100¢ | $1,461 | +$447 +31% | 20 |
| 444d | China | SellYes80¢ → 100¢ | $2,888 | −$722 −25% | — | |
| 444d | Switzerland | BuyNo49¢ → 100¢ | $1,235 | +$1,299 +105% | 20 | |
| 444d | China | SellYes81¢ → 100¢ | $1,614 | −$386 −24% | — | |
| 445d | Happiness... | China | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,640 | +$360 +22% | 20 |
| 445d | futureisyours | China | BuyNo20¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 20 |
| 445d | Retired-Davis | Brazil | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $1,363 | +$320 +24% | 20 |
| 447d | China | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,720 | +$280 +16% | 20 | |
| 447d | Germany | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,655 | −$64 −3.9% | — | |
| 447d | France | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,653 | −$66 −4.0% | — | |
| 448d | China | SellYes85¢ → 100¢ | $2,901 | −$512 −18% | — | |
| 448d | Krass | France | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,446 | +$54 +3.7% | 20 |
| 448d | France | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,700 | +$72 +4.2% | 20 | |
| 448d | Germany | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,150 | +$48 +4.2% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and the listed country/entity between August 1, and August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements to extend tariff exemptions will qualify if announced as an individualized extension. However, tariff exemptions which are announced as part of a class of exemptions and do not reflect individual deals - such as Trump’s April 9 pause on all reciprocal tariffs other than those on China - will not qualify (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-to-reflect-trading-partner-retaliation-and-alignment/). Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. Agreements that include the United States and the listed country/entity as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for China means the market gives it about 100%.