Polymarket · WorldClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| India | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Argentina | 0% | +1 pts | −2 pts | — · 2¢ | — | ended |
| Brazil | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| South Korea | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · 4¢ | — | ended |
| Canada | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Switzerland | 0% | −1 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Israel | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Mexico | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Germany | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| France | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Australia | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · 4¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 389d | China | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,271 | −$9 −0.7% | — | |
| 391d | wubddh3 fills | India | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,130 | +$44 +1.4% | 20 |
| 393d | wubddh | Canada | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,091 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 394d | wubddh | Brazil | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,817 | +$55 +1.4% | 20 |
| 418d | China | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,075 | +$81 +7.5% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and the listed country/entity between September 1, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements to extend tariff exemptions will qualify if announced as an individualized extension. However, tariff exemptions which are announced as part of a class of exemptions and do not reflect individual deals - such as Trump’s April 9 pause on all reciprocal tariffs other than those on China - will not qualify (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-to-reflect-trading-partner-retaliation-and-alignment/). Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. Agreements that include the United States and the listed country/entity as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for China means the market gives it about 0%.