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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Miran | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Kevin Warsh | 0% | −30 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Kevin Hassett | 0% | −18 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Arthur Laffer | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Larry Kudlow | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Judy Shelton | 0% | −18 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ron Paul | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Chamath Palihapitiya | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Howard Lutnick | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Scott Bessent | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Elon Musk | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Chris Waller | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Michelle Bowman | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Roger W. Ferguson Jr. | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Person B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person C | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person D | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person E | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person F | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person G | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person H | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person I | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person J | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person K | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person L | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person M | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person N | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person O | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person P | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person Q | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person R | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person S | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| No announcement by December 31 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 442d |  0x6e8f80ca0cddb8d3f207dc5147ac0e6062ae162 | Kevin Warsh | SellNo>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 442d | 0x6e8f80ca0cddb8d3f207dc5147ac0e6062ae162 | Kevin Hassett | SellNo>99¢ | $1,446 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 442d | 0x6e8f80ca0cddb8d3f207dc5147ac0e6062ae1622 fills | Kevin Hassett | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,968 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 442d | 0x6e8f80ca0cddb8d3f207dc5147ac0e6062ae162 | Kevin Warsh | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,801 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d |  RelaySucks | Arthur Laffer | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,498 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d |  Oompa-Loompa | Arthur Laffer | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,259 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 442d | Oompa-Loompa | Larry Kudlow | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,896 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d | Oompa-Loompa | Ron Paul | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,033 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d | Oompa-Loompa | Elon Musk | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,722 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d | Oompa-Loompa | Chris Waller | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,853 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d | Oompa-Loompa | No announcement by December 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,687 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 442d |  ScottyNooo | Arthur Laffer | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,394 | +$6 +0.4% | 20 |
| 442d |  user-213094o | Kevin Warsh | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $19,800 | +$200 +1.0% | 20 |
| 442d |  .jeet | Kevin Hassett | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,311 | +$48 +1.1% | 20 |
This market will resolve to according the individual Donald Trump announces as his nominee to fill Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler's chair. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for this position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No announcement by December 31". An announcement of Trump's nominee to fill this position will be sufficient to immediately resolve this market, regardless of whether that individual ultimately is confirmed. The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Stephen Miran means the market gives it about 100%.