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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Bessent | 100% | +76 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Jamie Dimon | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| John Paulson | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Larry Kudlow | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Robert Lighthizer | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Bill Hagerty | 0% | −8 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jay Clayton | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Steven Mnuchin | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Howard Lutnick | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Kevin Warsh | 0% | −50 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Marc Rowan | 0% | −12 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Larry Fink | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Person D | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person E | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person F | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person G | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person H | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person I | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person J | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 700d | Predictandbreathe | Scott Bessent | SellYes>99¢ | $3,691 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 700d | TANKYTANK | Scott Bessent | SellYes>99¢ | $8,566 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 700d |  syncope | Bill Hagerty | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,572 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 700d | elPolloLoco | Scott Bessent | SellYes>99¢ | $1,323 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 700d | Gjpeso10 fills | Scott Bessent | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $42,958 | −$2,242 −5.2% | — |
| 700d |  LlamaEnjoyer | Bill Hagerty | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,512 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 700d |  ScreamingEagle | Scott Bessent | SellYes>99¢ | $1,593 | −$8 −0.5% | — |
| 700d | denniswin | Scott Bessent | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,280 | −$8 −0.6% | — |
| 700d |  Car | Scott Bessent | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,109 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 700d | Kreon | Scott Bessent | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,232 | −$35 −1.1% | — |
| 700d | polychamp | Kevin Warsh | SellNo>99¢ | $1,480 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 700d |  MMousse3 fills | Bill Hagerty | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,065 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 700d |  AgricultureSecretary | Scott Bessent | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,673 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 700d |  Axios | Kevin Warsh | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,953 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 700d | Axios | Marc Rowan | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,967 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 700d | Axios2 fills | Scott Bessent | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $7,665 | +$1,559 +20% | 20 |
| 700d | surf3 fills | Scott Bessent | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $10,803 | +$242 +2.2% | 20 |
| 700d | TheEconometrician | Scott Bessent | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,321 | +$13 +1.0% | 20 |
| 700d | elPolloLoco2 fills | Bill Hagerty | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,524 | −$15 −0.6% | — |
| 700d | AIisTheNewWalkingDead | Jamie Dimon | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,407 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 |
| 700d | AIisTheNewWalkingDead | Steven Mnuchin | BuyNo>99¢ | $25,095 | +$25 +0.1% | 20 |
| 700d | MMousse2 fills | John Paulson | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,769 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 700d |  Erasmus.4 fills | Scott Bessent | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $20,337 | +$2,716 +13% | 20 |
| 700d | MMousse4 fills | Steven Mnuchin | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,212 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 |
| 700d | MMousse | Scott Bessent | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,703 | +$41 +1.5% | 20 |
| 700d | MMousse3 fills | Larry Kudlow | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,941 | +$60 +0.5% | 20 |
| 700d | MMousse | Kevin Warsh | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,658 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 700d | MMousse3 fills | Robert Lighthizer | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $11,493 | +$75 +0.6% | 20 |
| 700d | Gallo | Scott Bessent | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,153 | −$47 −4.1% | — |
| 700d | MMousse | Larry Fink | BuyNo>99¢ | $24,883 | +$25 +0.1% | 20 |
| 700d | MMousse | Jamie Dimon | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,853 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 700d | MMousse3 fills | Howard Lutnick | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,466 | +$42 +0.4% | 20 |
| 700d | surf | Bill Hagerty | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,284 | +$73 +5.7% | 20 |
| 700d |  DarkElon | Scott Bessent | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,877 | +$141 +7.5% | 20 |
| 701d | AlecBaldwin420 | Scott Bessent | BuyYes49¢ → 100¢ | $1,017 | +$1,051 +103% | 20 |
| 701d | surf | Howard Lutnick | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $48,499 | +$490 +1.0% | 20 |
| 701d | BowlOfPunch | Kevin Warsh | BuyNo60¢ → 100¢ | $1,451 | +$977 +67% | 20 |
| 701d |  ImJustKen8 fills | Howard Lutnick | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $35,777 | +$4,887 +14% | 20 |
| 701d | Cbarbhwux | Kevin Warsh | BuyYes50¢ → 0¢ | $1,210 | −$1,210 −100% | 20 |
| 701d | Gallo | Kevin Warsh | SellNo47¢ → 100¢ | $1,786 | −$2,014 −113% | — |
| 701d | random82 fills | Kevin Warsh | BuyYes37¢ → 0¢ | $5,050 | −$5,050 −100% | 24 |
| 701d | goingsocial | Kevin Warsh | SellYes52¢ → 0¢ | $1,208 | +$1,208 +100% | — |
| 701d | wessel79 | Kevin Warsh | BuyYes75¢ → 0¢ | $1,479 | −$1,479 −100% | 20 |
| 701d | cigarettes2 fills | Larry Kudlow | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,274 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 701d | cigarettes | Bill Hagerty | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,167 | +$93 +8.0% | 20 |
| 701d | cigarettes | Howard Lutnick | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,257 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 701d | cigarettes | Scott Bessent | BuyNo87¢ → 0¢ | $1,096 | −$1,096 −100% | 20 |
| 701d | cigarettes3 fills | Robert Lighthizer | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,607 | +$53 +1.5% | 20 |
| 701d | abhiapple2 fills | Kevin Warsh | BuyYes62¢ → 0¢ | $9,683 | −$9,683 −100% | 20 |
| 701d | poohoo2 fills | Howard Lutnick | SellNo>99¢ | $3,839 | −$12 −0.3% | — |
| 701d | poohoo2 fills | Howard Lutnick | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,843 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 701d | AncHoys2 fills | Steven Mnuchin | SellNo>99¢ | $3,859 | −$12 −0.3% | — |
| 701d | AncHoys2 fills | Steven Mnuchin | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,863 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 701d | enjoyerofthings | Kevin Warsh | BuyYes82¢ → 0¢ | $10,110 | −$10,110 −100% | 20 |
| 702d |  Strider-1 | Howard Lutnick | SellNo>99¢ | $1,431 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 702d | yaboybigMike | Scott Bessent | BuyYes50¢ → 100¢ | $1,011 | +$1,011 +100% | 20 |
| 702d | BluesMTL | Scott Bessent | BuyYes50¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$1,010 +101% | 20 |
| 702d | Cbarbhwux | Kevin Warsh | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,323 | +$334 +25% | 20 |
| 702d | Pookiebear1111 | Scott Bessent | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $1,470 | +$481 +33% | 20 |
| 702d | 0xfe91…70ff | Kevin Warsh | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $1,840 | +$788 +43% | 20 |
This is a market on who Donald Trump will appoint as his Treasury secretary.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Scott Bessent means the market gives it about 100%.