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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barack Obama | 100% | +45 pts | +51 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Tucker Carlson | 100% | +71 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Melania Trump | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Xi Jinping | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Joe Biden | 100% | +6 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Nicolás Maduro | 100% | +64 pts | +59 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Megyn Kelly | 100% | +71 pts | — | >99¢ · >99¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Alex Jones | 100% | +86 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| J.D. Vance | 0% | −2 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Pope Leo XIV | 0% | −2 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Vladimir Putin | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jerome Powell | 100% | +25 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Viktor Orbán | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Pam Bondi | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Elon Musk | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Candace Owens | 100% | +56 pts | — | 98¢ · 100¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| Tucker Carlson | 0% | −33 pts | −63 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 0% | −18 pts | −33 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Keir Starmer | 0% | −4 pts | −38 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Joe Biden | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Zohran Mamdani | 0% | −13 pts | −30 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Megyn Kelly | 0% | −23 pts | −28 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Alex Jones | 0% | −48 pts | −51 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Candace Owens | 100% | +48 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 176d | FlyingPlaty | Viktor Orbán | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,090 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 176d |  0x039478r87r8yr3f7hd | J.D. Vance | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,086 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 176d |  beenraping2 fills | Melania Trump | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,068 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 177d | 0x039478r87r8yr3f7hd | Xi Jinping | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,009 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 183d | L.X | Barack Obama | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,497 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 183d | looppau | Barack Obama | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,528 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 183d | ddolsw123r | Barack Obama | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,977 | +$24 +0.8% | 4 |
| 183d | Well-Groomed-Netbook2 fills | Barack Obama | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $29,410 | +$1,288 +4.4% | 4 |
| 186d | Awkward-Bride | Jerome Powell | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $4,578 | +$421 +9.2% | 4 |
| 187d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Benjamin Netanyahu | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,254 | +$75 +2.3% | 4 |
| 187d |  DEGENKHAN | Melania Trump | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,827 | +$29 +1.6% | 4 |
| 188d | cripes3 | Xi Jinping | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,816 | −$44 −2.4% | — |
| 190d | jklsjdwoqejasdf | Alex Jones | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,254 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 190d | Awkward-Bride | Alex Jones | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $4,127 | +$158 +3.8% | 4 |
| 190d |  CongMingLabs | J.D. Vance | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,275 | +$23 +1.8% | 4 |
| 190d | pelik | Megyn Kelly | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,049 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 190d | L.X | Megyn Kelly | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,298 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 190d | pelik | Tucker Carlson | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,529 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 190d |  Warren-Buffett2 fills | Megyn Kelly | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,336 | +$24 +1.0% | 4 |
| 190d | 0x039478r87r8yr3f7hd | Megyn Kelly | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,150 | +$44 +2.1% | 4 |
| 190d |  AgricultureSecretary2 fills | Megyn Kelly | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $4,147 | +$715 +17% | 4 |
| 190d |  ProfitMuhammedPBUH2 fills | Tucker Carlson | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $9,650 | +$270 +2.8% | 4 |
| 190d |  WarriorPooh | Tucker Carlson | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $2,191 | +$299 +14% | 4 |
| 191d | Sarcastic-MinimalismNew account | Joe Biden | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $13,105 | +$226 +1.7% | 5 |
| 192d | Trustinghorse | Joe Biden | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,155 | +$194 +9.0% | 4 |
0xzitu200 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Barack Obama means the market gives it about 100%.