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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | 0 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 651d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly2 fills | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | BuyYes>99¢ | $24,154 | +$51 +0.2% | 4 |
| 671d | Cooperative-Takeover | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,568 | +$17 +1.1% | 4 |
| 706d |  fhantombets | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,291 | −$97 −2.9% | — |
| 716d | ImHereForTheRewards | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,753 | +$89 +5.1% | 4 |
| 721d | MxT | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,651 | −$108 −6.6% | — |
| 724d |  ImJustKen2 fills | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | SellYes76¢ → 100¢ | $4,594 | −$1,427 −31% | — |
| 733d |  TimeQuestion2 fills | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,022 | −$150 −5.0% | — |
| 789d |  aenews22 fills | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $8,271 | −$426 −5.1% | — |
| 797d |  Brokie | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $10,089 | −$496 −4.9% | — |
| 805d | CoolBetguy | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,385 | +$58 +4.2% | 4 |
| 805d | aenews22 fills | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $3,264 | +$242 +7.4% | 4 |
| 811d | ImJustKen2 fills | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $2,613 | +$1,220 +47% | 4 |
| 812d | lazydumpling | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $2,837 | −$411 −14% | — |
| 839d |  ohwell | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | SellNo22¢ → 0¢ | $1,085 | +$1,085 +100% | — |
| 847d | Kapii3 fills | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | BuyNo39¢ → 0¢ | $7,500 | −$7,500 −100% | 8 |
| 869d |  gopfan2 fills | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $4,235 | +$2,199 +52% | 4 |
| 920d | rex48 | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | SellYes60¢ → 100¢ | $1,120 | −$747 −67% | — |
| 922d | MxT | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | BuyYes58¢ → 100¢ | $2,199 | +$1,593 +72% | 4 |
| 935d | Kapii2 fills | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | SellNo52¢ → 0¢ | $3,947 | +$3,947 +100% | — |
| 951d | ImJustKen2 fills | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | BuyNo42¢ → 0¢ | $2,889 | −$2,889 −100% | 6 |
| 960d | planetnine | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | BuyYes59¢ → 100¢ | $1,003 | +$697 +69% | 4 |
| 960d | ohwell2 fills | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | BuyNo42¢ → 0¢ | $2,069 | −$2,069 −100% | 5 |
| 967d | ImJustKen | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | SellNo45¢ → 0¢ | $1,610 | +$1,610 +100% | — |
| 975d |  truthteller | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | SellYes58¢ → 100¢ | $3,060 | −$2,214 −72% | — |
| 987d | lazydumpling | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | BuyYes63¢ → 100¢ | $2,010 | +$1,180 +59% | 4 |
| 987d |  New.Jeans | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | BuyYes62¢ → 100¢ | $1,550 | +$950 +61% | 4 |
| 987d |  VibesGreaterRules2 fills | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | SellYes61¢ → 100¢ | $2,674 | −$1,678 −63% | — |
| 989d | truthteller | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | BuyNo37¢ → 0¢ | $1,110 | −$1,110 −100% | 4 |
0xd34db33f10 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2024 shows an increase of 1.18°C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of 1.18°C or greater for 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2023 and/or 2024 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.