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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2025 | 100% | −1 pts | −2 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 31, 2026 | 100% | +14 pts | +22 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 30, 2026 | 100% | +2 pts | — | 99¢ · >99¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 345d |  bamesjond3 fills | December 31, 2025 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,945 | +$19 +0.2% | 2 |
| 345d |  Allinnothing | December 31, 2025 | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,141 | +$11 +0.1% | 2 |
| 345d |  Debosnys | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,726 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 345d | bamesjond | June 30, 2026 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,455 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 345d |  Rorschach-Kovacs | December 31, 2025 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,644 | −$22 −1.4% | — |
| 345d |  0x6e8f80ca0cddb8d3f207dc5147ac0e6062ae162 | December 31, 2025 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $17,216 | +$178 +1.0% | 2 |
| 345d |  Fallout2 | December 31, 2025 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,726 | −$53 −3.1% | — |
| 345d |  JAHODA2 fills | December 31, 2025 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,201 | +$65 +2.0% | 2 |
| 345d |  Oompa-Loompa | December 31, 2025 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$96 +8.7% | 2 |
| 345d |  Car6 fills | December 31, 2025 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $10,709 | +$3,693 +34% | 2 |
| 345d | karafasan | December 31, 2025 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,892 | −$166 −8.8% | — |
| 345d | ZalupaGREAT | December 31, 2025 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,002 | +$118 +12% | 2 |
| 345d |  Mester | December 31, 2025 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,592 | +$135 +8.5% | 2 |
| 345d | xsjptlp32p | December 31, 2025 | BuyYes59¢ → 100¢ | $3,215 | +$2,218 +69% | 2 |
| 371d |  beastishngry | December 31, 2025 | SellNo78¢ → 0¢ | $3,124 | +$3,124 +100% | — |
| 373d | MariaLo | December 31, 2025 | SellNo81¢ → 0¢ | $1,023 | +$1,023 +100% | — |
| 374d | 0xTrinity | December 31, 2025 | SellNo83¢ → 0¢ | $8,390 | +$8,390 +100% | — |
| 379d | Kevindoto2 fills | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo85¢ → 0¢ | $2,743 | −$2,743 −100% | 2 |
| 380d |  CoffeeLover | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo85¢ → 0¢ | $1,561 | −$1,561 −100% | 2 |
| 380d | Car | December 31, 2025 | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $3,962 | −$592 −15% | — |
| 380d | eugene88 | December 31, 2025 | SellYes74¢ → 100¢ | $1,088 | −$382 −35% | — |
| 380d |  Warsh-Nightmare | December 31, 2025 | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $3,600 | −$491 −14% | — |
| 380d | carlmagnuses | December 31, 2025 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $4,586 | −$508 −11% | — |
| 380d |  BuckMySalls3 fills | December 31, 2025 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $12,454 | +$1,220 +9.8% | 2 |
| 380d |  PaddyAlpha | December 31, 2025 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,696 | +$90 +5.3% | 2 |
| 380d | Absolute-Macadamia | December 31, 2025 | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $2,221 | −$332 −15% | — |
| 463d | botLecter | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo54¢ → 0¢ | $1,495 | −$1,495 −100% | 2 |
| 464d |  png1024 | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo54¢ → 0¢ | $1,500 | −$1,500 −100% | 2 |
| 490d | karnishon | December 31, 2025 | SellYes46¢ → 100¢ | $1,337 | −$1,570 −117% | — |
| 497d | Fire13 | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo51¢ → 0¢ | $1,020 | −$1,020 −100% | 2 |
| 499d | HH1683 fills | December 31, 2025 | SellNo38¢ → 0¢ | $4,002 | +$4,002 +100% | — |
| 501d | Fkthiscap | December 31, 2025 | SellYes44¢ → 100¢ | $1,187 | −$1,499 −126% | — |
| 502d |  debased3 fills | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo62¢ → 0¢ | $14,514 | −$14,514 −100% | 2 |
| 502d |  WhiteLivesMatter2 fills | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo42¢ → 0¢ | $4,093 | −$4,093 −100% | 4 |
| 502d |  Dropper | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo41¢ → 0¢ | $3,333 | −$3,333 −100% | 4 |
| 502d | SaylorMoon | December 31, 2025 | SellYes63¢ → 100¢ | $3,150 | −$1,850 −59% | — |
| 502d |  HNIC4 fills | December 31, 2025 | BuyYes72¢ → 100¢ | $22,752 | +$8,984 +39% | 2 |
| 502d | debased4 fills | December 31, 2025 | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $13,584 | +$6,453 +48% | 2 |
| 502d | HNIC | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo73¢ → 0¢ | $16,632 | −$16,632 −100% | 2 |
| 507d | speedyalmonds | December 31, 2025 | BuyYes57¢ → 100¢ | $1,349 | +$1,029 +76% | 2 |
| 510d | Fkthiscap | December 31, 2025 | BuyYes59¢ → 100¢ | $1,572 | +$1,114 +71% | 2 |
| 541d |  JungleChungus | December 31, 2025 | SellYes42¢ → 100¢ | $1,256 | −$1,710 −136% | — |
| 596d | carlmagnuses | December 31, 2025 | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $2,361 | +$1,109 +47% | 2 |
| 596d |  jinghong | December 31, 2025 | SellYes53¢ → 100¢ | $1,062 | −$949 −89% | — |
| 596d |  chuanshangxue | December 31, 2025 | SellYes60¢ → 100¢ | $2,479 | −$1,639 −66% | — |
| 617d |  MotherTheresa | December 31, 2025 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $8,993 | +$2,039 +23% | 2 |
| 631d |  Cybermichl3 fills | December 31, 2025 | SellYes65¢ → 100¢ | $6,156 | −$3,327 −54% | — |
| 632d | Wicked-Parrot | December 31, 2025 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$865 +35% | 2 |
| 633d | Feogna | December 31, 2025 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $1,469 | +$522 +36% | 2 |
| 633d |  RememberAmalek | December 31, 2025 | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $5,498 | +$2,608 +47% | 2 |
| 637d |  stackinbit | December 31, 2025 | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $1,477 | +$695 +47% | 2 |
| 638d | azot | December 31, 2025 | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$1,313 +44% | 2 |
| 638d | karnishon | December 31, 2025 | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $2,005 | +$901 +45% | 2 |
| 642d |  Martina11 | December 31, 2025 | SellYes74¢ → 100¢ | $1,501 | −$528 −35% | — |
| 643d | MrM1 | December 31, 2025 | SellYes75¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | −$500 −33% | — |
| 643d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly | December 31, 2025 | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $6,910 | +$2,057 +30% | 2 |
| 645d | Cybermichl2 fills | December 31, 2025 | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $6,955 | +$2,843 +41% | 2 |
| 651d | 0xTrinity2 fills | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo33¢ → 0¢ | $4,283 | −$4,283 −100% | 7 |
| 652d | ExhaustedBoyBilly2 fills | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo30¢ → 0¢ | $3,483 | −$3,483 −100% | 7 |
| 652d | chuanshangxue | December 31, 2025 | BuyYes72¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$785 +39% | 2 |
0xloren5,642 shares
7153649820805 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes"). The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the governments of any purchasing UN member state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for December 31, 2025 means the market gives it about 100%.