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Polymarket · EconomyClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 296d | FEDchair | Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by December 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,632 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 298d |  bosshog | Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by December 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,030 | +$22 +0.7% | 20 |
| 298d |  x26 | Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by December 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,740 | +$15 +0.9% | 20 |
| 340d |  GetEvenOrGetEvenWorse | Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by December 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,893 | +$52 +1.1% | 20 |
On November 9, Trump voiced the idea of a tariff-funded stimulus of about $2,000 per person, paid out of revenue from new import duties. You can read more about that here: https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/10/economy/tariff-rebate-check-proposal-what-to-know This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.