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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +4 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 564d | rwo2 fills | Will an open-source AI model become Top 3 this year? | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,453 | +$6 +0.2% | 4 |
| 564d | morcatk0 | Will an open-source AI model become Top 3 this year? | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,425 | +$5 +0.2% | 4 |
| 566d |  fffffz | Will an open-source AI model become Top 3 this year? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$13 +1.0% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any open source model has one of three highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) at any point by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If an open source model is tied with another model for a top three arena score, this will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.