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Polymarket · WorldClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 7 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 206d |  Gorgeous- | March 31 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,435 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 206d |  Chetonsol | March 31 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,022 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 206d | uLppv3ec6CF.7bLkbRy-aNWzJ3JJDURF4Jbi3Eph | March 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,416 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 206d |  yen4u | March 31 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,222 | −$29 −0.9% | — |
| 207d | 0xe617…f2516 fills | March 31 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $28,000 | +$5,000 +18% | 20 |
| 207d |  Dargdarg2 fills | March 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,518 | +$107 +1.9% | 20 |
| 207d | GCNO12 fills | March 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $6,422 | +$208 +3.2% | 21 |
| 207d | Thin-Print2 fills | March 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,976 | +$140 +3.5% | 21 |
| 207d | okada | March 31 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,022 | −$59 −2.9% | — |
| 208d | Chetonsol | March 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | +$22 +2.2% | 21 |
| 208d | Huludubu2 fills | March 31 | SellNo86¢ → 100¢ | $5,581 | −$919 −16% | — |
| 208d | px1 | March 31 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,563 | −$82 −5.3% | — |
| 208d |  Big.Chungus3 fills | March 31 | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $8,027 | −$762 −9.5% | — |
| 208d |  RememberAmalek | March 31 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $11,763 | −$619 −5.3% | — |
| 209d | Vilgefortz4 fills | March 31 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $8,520 | +$1,370 +16% | 20 |
| 209d | rustyecon123 | March 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,158 | +$174 +5.5% | 21 |
| 209d | yen4u4 fills | March 31 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $11,188 | +$1,113 +10.0% | 21 |
| 209d | DannyTanner | March 31 | SellYes5¢ → 0¢ | $1,254 | +$1,254 +100% | — |
| 209d |  Naichli | March 31 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,375 | −$294 −8.7% | — |
| 210d |  FTX2.04 fills | March 31 | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $6,855 | −$882 −13% | — |
| 211d |  SheepToken | March 31 | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $3,843 | −$357 −9.3% | — |
| 211d | Damogwai82 fills | March 31 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $6,047 | +$730 +12% | 21 |
| 211d | Votei14Voude22 | March 31 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,407 | −$156 −11% | — |
| 212d |  Turtleiny | March 31 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,274 | +$126 +9.9% | 21 |
| 212d |  mr.ozi2 fills | March 31 | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $4,185 | −$568 −14% | — |
| 212d | grgrrrgrgrgrr2 fills | March 31 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $7,416 | +$832 +11% | 21 |
| 213d | mm4ker2 fills | March 31 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$958 +24% | 20 |
| 213d | SheepToken2 fills | March 31 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $3,608 | +$592 +16% | 21 |
| 213d | cocococococo | March 31 | SellNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,159 | −$220 −19% | — |
| 214d | Big.Chungus2 fills | March 31 | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $3,200 | +$800 +25% | 20 |
| 214d |  yungstalin | March 31 | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $6,638 | +$1,264 +19% | 21 |
| 214d |  iutwpfal | March 31 | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,224 | −$167 −14% | — |
| 214d | KrackenSruster4 fills | March 31 | SellNo65¢ → 100¢ | $18,186 | −$9,589 −53% | — |
| 214d |  bosshog | March 31 | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,327 | −$173 −13% | — |
| 215d |  Mugatu-eth3 fills | March 31 | BuyYes23¢ → 0¢ | $5,927 | −$5,927 −100% | 29 |
| 215d | mr.ozi4 fills | March 31 | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $11,384 | +$3,803 +33% | 20 |
| 215d | spacegliderr2 fills | March 31 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $6,336 | +$1,071 +17% | 20 |
| 215d | hell0pia2 fills | March 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $15,935 | +$3,272 +21% | 20 |
| 215d | controls | March 31 | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,034 | +$258 +25% | 20 |
| 216d | DannyTanner | March 31 | BuyYes20¢ → 0¢ | $1,999 | −$1,999 −100% | 24 |
| 217d | Scottp18877 fills | March 31 | SellNo69¢ → 100¢ | $16,133 | −$7,099 −44% | — |
| 217d |  Maragaravalhitiskelerson3 fills | March 31 | SellYes18¢ → 0¢ | $5,362 | +$5,362 +100% | — |
| 217d | TariqAlM | March 31 | SellYes20¢ → 0¢ | $1,781 | +$1,781 +100% | — |
| 218d | Vilgefortz | March 31 | SellNo79¢ → 100¢ | $3,555 | −$945 −27% | — |
| 218d | 768543265 | March 31 | SellYes21¢ → 0¢ | $2,186 | +$2,186 +100% | — |
| 218d | tennisbowling | March 31 | BuyNo77¢ → 100¢ | $1,900 | +$568 +30% | 20 |
| 218d | TariqAlM | March 31 | BuyYes32¢ → 0¢ | $2,793 | −$2,793 −100% | 23 |
| 219d | lorry3122 | March 31 | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $1,875 | +$625 +33% | 20 |
| 219d |  Lolakis | March 31 | SellNo76¢ → 100¢ | $2,550 | −$805 −32% | — |
| 219d |  Arbguy2 fills | March 31 | BuyYes47¢ → 0¢ | $4,471 | −$4,471 −100% | 21 |
| 219d | Crowded-Sprout3 fills | March 31 | BuyYes36¢ → 0¢ | $4,087 | −$4,087 −100% | 24 |
| 219d | Cassiopeian2 fills | March 31 | BuyYes20¢ → 0¢ | $2,639 | −$2,639 −100% | 26 |
| 219d | Shiny-Mark2 fills | March 31 | BuyYes32¢ → 0¢ | $2,220 | −$2,220 −100% | 26 |
| 220d | Eatpraylove | March 31 | SellNo81¢ → 100¢ | $1,985 | −$481 −24% | — |
| 220d | Shiny-Mark6 fills | March 31 | SellYes36¢ → 0¢ | $11,369 | +$11,369 +100% | — |
| 220d | Adventurous-Evaluator5 fills | March 31 | SellNo61¢ → 100¢ | $11,614 | −$7,423 −64% | — |
| 220d | TraderQuant | March 31 | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$253 +25% | 20 |
| 220d |  KnureKnume2 fills | March 31 | BuyYes30¢ → 0¢ | $2,357 | −$2,357 −100% | 23 |
| 220d | Lolakis | March 31 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $1,788 | +$419 +23% | 20 |
| 221d | Leviathan1832 | March 31 | SellNo79¢ → 100¢ | $6,231 | −$1,660 −27% | — |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for March 31 means the market gives it about 0%.