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Polymarket · Tech & ScienceClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 296d |  zb8 | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 299d | AnonymousElephant692 fills | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | SellNo85¢ → 100¢ | $2,519 | −$458 −18% | — |
| 299d | aikko | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,154 | +$20 +1.8% | 4 |
| 303d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C293 fills | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $8,230 | +$306 +3.7% | 4 |
| 303d |  DaOnepiece3 fills | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $6,093 | +$720 +12% | 4 |
| 305d | Kevindoto | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,948 | +$103 +5.3% | 4 |
| 306d |  TREZOR-419 | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,053 | +$67 +6.4% | 4 |
| 307d | 0xbandit2 fills | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | SellNo83¢ → 100¢ | $3,466 | −$705 −20% | — |
| 310d |  DonAntimatter | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,790 | −$210 −7.5% | — |
| 313d |  ProfessionalPunter7 fills | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | SellNo77¢ → 100¢ | $13,297 | −$3,958 −30% | — |
| 313d |  Rumpelstiltskin | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $1,046 | +$295 +28% | 4 |
| 322d | DaOnepiece | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | SellNo76¢ → 100¢ | $2,150 | −$685 −32% | — |
| 324d | 0xbandit4 fills | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | BuyNo58¢ → 100¢ | $6,072 | +$4,408 +73% | 4 |
| 328d | Arbgod-himself | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | SellNo79¢ → 100¢ | $1,218 | −$328 −27% | — |
| 331d | DonAntimatter5 fills | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | BuyNo61¢ → 100¢ | $14,105 | +$9,155 +65% | 4 |
| 336d | aeaeaaee | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | BuyYes26¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 4 |
| 337d | ProfessionalPunter | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $5,815 | +$1,456 +25% | 4 |
| 337d |  lmtfalone | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | BuyNo72¢ → 100¢ | $1,609 | +$626 +39% | 4 |
| 337d |  fffffz2 fills | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | BuyNo69¢ → 100¢ | $4,620 | +$2,085 +45% | 4 |
| 337d |  scalpgoblin | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | SellNo65¢ → 100¢ | $1,163 | −$639 −55% | — |
| 338d | scalpgoblin | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | BuyNo68¢ → 100¢ | $1,402 | +$666 +47% | 4 |
| 338d |  JumpingJacks | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | BuyNo64¢ → 100¢ | $3,980 | +$2,270 +57% | 4 |
| 339d | PoliticalKiwi | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | BuyYes74¢ → 0¢ | $1,600 | −$1,600 −100% | 4 |
| 339d | IAmSeuz2 fills | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | BuyYes72¢ → 0¢ | $6,075 | −$6,075 −100% | 4 |
| 339d | Accomplished-Bitten | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | SellYes56¢ → 0¢ | $1,975 | +$1,975 +100% | — |
| 339d | AnonymousElephant69 | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | BuyNo43¢ → 100¢ | $1,290 | +$1,710 +133% | 4 |
| 339d | Accomplished-Bitten | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | BuyYes71¢ → 0¢ | $2,500 | −$2,500 −100% | 10 |
| 340d | ProfessionalPunter | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | SellYes43¢ → 0¢ | $1,657 | +$1,657 +100% | — |
| 340d | fffffz | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | BuyYes71¢ → 0¢ | $2,485 | −$2,485 −100% | 4 |
| 340d | Adrimarket | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | BuyNo36¢ → 100¢ | $1,514 | +$2,701 +178% | 5 |
| 342d | eNakeVets | Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? | BuyYes64¢ → 0¢ | $1,799 | −$1,799 −100% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches an Arena Score of 1500+ by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the “Arena Score” section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at https://lmarena.ai/. If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.