Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | $103 | in 74d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 197d | somerisk | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? | SellNo90¢ → 98¢ | $11,239 | −$1,079 −9.6% | — |
| 197d |  LaPulgaLeo | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? | SellNo94¢ → 98¢ | $2,295 | −$105 −4.6% | — |
| 198d | pd2 | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? | BuyNo96¢ → 98¢ | $2,804 | +$76 +2.7% | 3 |
| 247d | LaPulgaLeo | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? | BuyNo97¢ → 98¢ | $1,761 | +$17 +1.0% | 2 |
| 280d |  XieGuangKun | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? | SellNo95¢ → 98¢ | $1,320 | −$42 −3.2% | — |
| 290d | somerisk5 fills | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 98¢ | $12,804 | +$551 +4.3% | 3 |
| 299d | shadowrunner | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 98¢ | $1,281 | +$62 +4.8% | 3 |
Lord.Krulos276 sharesOn December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 2¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 2%.