Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 48% | +6 pts | +33 pts | 24¢ · 72¢ (48¢) | — | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 298d | orderfill2 fills | Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,252 | +$114 +3.5% | 2 |
| 301d |  ThanksGivingTurkey10013 fills | Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,951 | +$200 +4.0% | 2 |
| 316d | TuViejaa | Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$31 +2.0% | 2 |
| 318d | gotafeeling | Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,188 | +$75 +6.3% | 2 |
| 324d |  FelixGoblin | Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,355 | +$233 +9.9% | 2 |
| 324d |  Trading4Fridge | Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31? | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,553 | +$320 +21% | 2 |
| 420d |  Car | Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by September 30? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,078 | +$43 +4.0% | 2 |
LornaPredicts98 shares
iced-matcha-latte157 shares
Sathwik15538 shares
dgb3514 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holding officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador). Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 48¢ for December 31, 2026 means the market gives it about 48%.