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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 245d |  Slowroasted | Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,662 | +$14 +0.3% | 4 |
| 264d |  SPMontreal | Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,123 | +$94 +4.4% | 4 |
| 380d |  How.Dare.You | Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,055 | −$20 −1.9% | — |
| 592d | How.Dare.You3 fills | Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $6,460 | +$588 +9.1% | 4 |
| 594d | LeftieFTW | Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025? | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,457 | −$243 −9.9% | — |
| 606d | LeftieFTW | Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025? | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $2,110 | +$890 +42% | 4 |
| 619d | 0x32d6758638b5c7634b43i5kl0342jwb8n2j676 | Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025? | SellYes31¢ → 0¢ | $3,410 | +$3,410 +100% | — |
| 623d | 0x32d6758638b5c7634b43i5kl0342jwb8n2j6762 fills | Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025? | BuyYes31¢ → 0¢ | $3,131 | −$3,131 −100% | 8 |
In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 (see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 5% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,751,467,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.