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Polymarket · WorldClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | −2 pts | −5 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 212d | kevin-airdrop | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 212d | ArchelausButeo | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 212d |  bolt9ra | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $3,732 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 212d | FarseerProphecies | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $25,536 | −$26 −0.1% | — |
| 212d | dube4 fills | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $63,098 | −$173 −0.3% | — |
| 212d |  HorribleWork | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 212d |  tripping2 fills | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyNo<1¢ | $2,339 | −$2,339 −100% | 28 |
| 212d | Odysseus72 fills | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 212d | Shimshon41 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $10,534 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 212d | discombobulated-chicken | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 212d | CHIKI33 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,466 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 212d | Dr.finkel | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,123 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 212d | 0xb245…48d0 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyNo<1¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 22 |
| 212d | Gloomy-Material | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $31,958 | −$32 −0.1% | — |
| 212d | poorsob6 fills | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $294,868 | +$2,065 +0.7% | 20 |
| 212d |  noreasapa | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $66,933 | −$67 −0.1% | — |
| 213d |  NIRVANA872 fills | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $99,900 | −$100 −0.1% | — |
| 213d | 0x79a009b7C0336273Bf3Bc7E1D940aD3e2152B9 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 213d | Light-Explorer3 fills | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyNo<1¢ | $3,236 | −$3,236 −100% | 35 |
| 213d | OmahasOracle | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $29,970 | −$30 −0.1% | — |
| 213d | YoYo110045625 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyNo<1¢ | $1,202 | −$1,202 −100% | 23 |
| 213d | RobertoRubio2 fills | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $3,984 | −$16 −0.4% | — |
| 213d | StandardAndPoor500 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $29,970 | −$30 −0.1% | — |
| 213d | BS-SA-JJ-Team5 fills | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $19,240 | −$19 −0.1% | — |
| 213d |  bamesjond2 fills | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $11,480 | −$22 −0.2% | — |
| 213d | 4g9944897 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,533 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 213d | Milky-CheddarNew account | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,552 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 213d | Some.1 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyNo<1¢ | $1,018 | −$1,018 −100% | 22 |
| 213d | gr22g62 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,527 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 213d | bny541541. | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,507 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 213d |  CAR-AyatollahVersion | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,681,536 | +$1,683 +0.1% | 20 |
| 213d | g145eg | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,535 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 213d | 4g9944897 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,533 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 213d | f54fw45f | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,483 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 213d | Milky-CheddarNew account | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,552 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 213d | 1ge86gegfw | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,485 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 213d | gr22g62 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,527 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 213d | sdfwf626f | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,490 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 213d | bny541541. | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,507 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 213d |  debased | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $29,970 | +$30 +0.1% | 20 |
| 213d |  ZhangMuZhi.. | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 213d | Raymond888 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $100,000 | +$100 +0.1% | 20 |
| 213d | g145eg | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,538 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 213d | f54fw45f | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,486 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 213d | 1ge86gegfw | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,488 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 213d | sdfwf626f | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,493 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 213d |  takemymoney | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $32,967 | +$33 +0.1% | 20 |
| 213d |  tomatosauce2 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 213d | dube | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $29,970 | +$30 +0.1% | 20 |
| 213d | Huludubu4 fills | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,097 | +$15 +0.2% | 20 |
| 213d |  Dripx | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $299,700 | +$300 +0.1% | 20 |
| 213d | Elias.Thornwell | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,100 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 213d | tsekinming013 fills | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $106,163 | +$185 +0.2% | 20 |
| 213d |  OptimusBot2 fills | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $3,398 | +$199 +5.9% | 20 |
| 213d |  Infringe2 fills | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $26,707 | +$38 +0.1% | 20 |
| 213d |  Burnmoneyuser2 fills | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $19,321 | +$647 +3.4% | 20 |
| 213d | Katniss Everdeen | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $399,974 | +$400 +0.1% | 20 |
| 213d |  JoachimPeiper | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,366 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 213d |  Totenkopf | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,518 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 213d | StandardAndPoor500 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $294,402 | +$590 +0.2% | 20 |
KarlXX1,135,034 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Lebanese territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.