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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 20 | 100% | +82 pts | — | 97¢ · 100¢ (3¢) | — | — |
| October 21 | 0% | −34 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| October 22 | 0% | −35 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| October 23 | 0% | 0 pts | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| October 24 | 0% | −33 pts | — | — · 3¢ | — | — |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 362d |  BlackSky123 | October 23 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,669 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 363d | 0330330338 fills | October 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $370,390 | +$399 +0.1% | 20 |
| 363d |  ChoosePoverty | October 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,421 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 363d |  Burnmoneyuser | October 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,111 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 363d | IKUNIKUN2 fills | October 23 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,381 | −$7 −0.2% | — |
| 363d | IKUNIKUN2 fills | October 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,385 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 363d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C29 | October 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,481 | +$27 +0.2% | 20 |
| 363d |  Dropper | October 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,980 | +$22 +0.2% | 20 |
| 363d | Mazkirut | October 23 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,067 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 363d |  CluelessEyes | October 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,000 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 363d |  salenaolmos | October 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,011 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 363d |  MoMBonds | October 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,923 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 |
| 363d |  Allinnothing | October 24 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,685 | +$17 +1.0% | 20 |
| 363d | BlackSky123 | October 24 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,302 | +$45 +1.4% | 20 |
| 363d |  aenews2 | October 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,501 | +$35 +0.2% | 20 |
| 363d |  scout4 fills | October 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $26,220 | +$104 +0.4% | 20 |
| 363d |  lkdjwklva | October 24 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,585 | +$32 +2.0% | 20 |
| 364d | GhostOfKiev | October 23 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,312 | −$23 −0.7% | — |
| 364d |  PredictionYogi | October 24 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,191 | +$51 +4.3% | 20 |
| 364d | MAGA.ONE | October 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,589 | +$88 +0.5% | 20 |
| 364d |  Car2 fills | October 23 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $6,291 | +$412 +6.5% | 20 |
| 364d | takeme2themoon | October 23 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,854 | +$13 +0.7% | 20 |
| 364d | Fightree | October 23 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,439 | −$27 −1.9% | — |
| 364d |  m0rt | October 23 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,727 | −$28 −1.0% | — |
| 364d | yuo453 fills | October 23 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,031 | −$75 −0.9% | — |
| 364d |  SheepToken | October 23 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,821 | −$18 −1.0% | — |
| 364d |  tourists | October 23 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,938 | +$71 +0.7% | 20 |
| 364d |  AgricultureSecretary | October 23 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,056 | +$10 +0.9% | 20 |
| 364d |  adonpoli | October 23 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,964 | −$36 −0.6% | — |
| 364d | adonpoli | October 23 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,938 | +$70 +0.7% | 20 |
| 364d | Nebula-Croissant | October 23 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,498 | −$25 −1.0% | — |
| 364d | ALLOWMETOSHOWU1 | October 23 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,475 | −$25 −1.0% | — |
| 364d |  PerceptionManagement | October 23 | SellYes45¢ → 0¢ | $1,041 | +$1,041 +100% | — |
| 364d | ALLOWMETOSHOWU1 | October 23 | BuyNo60¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$1,000 +67% | 20 |
| 365d | JamesTheGiant | October 23 | BuyYes56¢ → 0¢ | $1,133 | −$1,133 −100% | 20 |
| 365d |  ppp31649 | October 23 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,016 | +$89 +8.8% | 20 |
| 365d | Kiger-okx | October 23 | BuyYes92¢ → 0¢ | $1,110 | −$1,110 −100% | 20 |
| 365d |  JaidenAnimations | October 23 | BuyNo34¢ → 100¢ | $1,333 | +$2,588 +194% | 21 |
| 365d |  ILOVEYOUBABYZZ | October 23 | BuyYes89¢ → 0¢ | $2,720 | −$2,720 −100% | 20 |
| 365d | denizz | October 23 | BuyNo50¢ → 100¢ | $1,459 | +$1,458 +100% | 20 |
| 366d | IbnKhaldun | October 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,006 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 366d | Allinnothing | October 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,794 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 367d |  JoeTrum | October 21 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,818 | +$38 +2.1% | 20 |
| 367d | denizz | October 21 | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $1,811 | +$604 +33% | 20 |
| 367d |  Naichli | October 21 | BuyNo68¢ → 100¢ | $1,126 | +$539 +48% | 20 |
| 367d | KokoVeLeon3 | October 21 | SellNo53¢ → 100¢ | $1,073 | −$960 −89% | — |
| 367d | KokoVeLeon3 | October 21 | BuyNo47¢ → 100¢ | $1,069 | +$1,191 +111% | 20 |
| 368d | CocoBambino | October 20 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $2,109 | +$443 +21% | 20 |
GoldOphir56 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for October 20 means the market gives it about 100%.