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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 31 | 100% | +61 pts | +61 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 28 | 0% | −4 pts | −35 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 27 | 100% | +59 pts | +45 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 15 | 100% | +47 pts | +61 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 26 | 0% | −1 pts | −46 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 21 | 100% | +73 pts | +50 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 4 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 9 | 0% | 0 pts | −29 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 13 | 100% | +26 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 8 | 100% | +71 pts | +64 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 7 | 100% | +76 pts | +63 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 29 | 100% | +69 pts | +53 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 30 | 100% | +68 pts | +54 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 16 | 0% | −2 pts | −52 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 25 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 12 | 100% | +46 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 17 | 0% | — | −45 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 10 | 100% | +67 pts | +68 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 6 | 0% | −1 pts | −27 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 14 | 0% | −1 pts | −41 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 22 | 0% | −1 pts | −37 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 11 | 100% | +52 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 19 | 0% | −2 pts | −52 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 1 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 24 | 100% | +74 pts | +55 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 2 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 20 | 0% | −1 pts | −43 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 5 | 100% | +70 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 18 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 23 | 0% | −1 pts | −37 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 3 | 100% | +87 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 266d | Far-Off-Erosion | January 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,187 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 266d | Trtr3 | January 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,596 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 266d |  roadmapper2 fills | January 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,600 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 266d |  bamesjond | January 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,452 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 267d |  HowToBasic3 fills | January 28 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $11,347 | +$336 +3.0% | 20 |
| 267d |  RIPTS | January 28 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,945 | +$22 +1.1% | 20 |
| 267d | bamesjond | January 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,190 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 267d | lioijnnn2 fills | January 31 | SellNo67¢ → 0¢ | $13,507 | +$13,507 +100% | — |
| 267d | lioijnnn2 fills | January 31 | BuyNo67¢ → 0¢ | $13,507 | −$13,507 −100% | 28 |
| 267d | lioijnnn3 fills | January 31 | SellYes32¢ → 100¢ | $8,912 | −$18,938 −213% | — |
| 267d | lioijnnn3 fills | January 31 | BuyYes32¢ → 100¢ | $8,848 | +$18,802 +213% | 35 |
| 267d | xcvsdf2342wer | January 30 | SellNo58¢ → 0¢ | $5,477 | +$5,477 +100% | — |
| 267d | xcvsdf2342wer | January 30 | BuyNo60¢ → 0¢ | $5,700 | −$5,700 −100% | 28 |
| 268d | NxGe | January 28 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,548 | −$99 −6.4% | — |
| 268d | Michael5289 | January 29 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,825 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 268d | HowToBasic3 fills | January 29 | BuyYes>99¢ | $15,138 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 268d | bamesjond | January 29 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,000 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 268d | dudukos | January 29 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$51 +1.7% | 20 |
| 268d |  Whylik | January 29 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,108 | +$135 +12% | 22 |
| 268d | HowToBasic5 fills | January 26 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,300 | +$104 +1.0% | 20 |
| 269d | Asddd222 fills | January 26 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,180 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 269d | bamesjond | January 26 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,386 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 269d |  Dr.mett | January 27 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,113 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 269d |  ILOVEYOUBABYZZ | January 27 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,174 | −$25 −0.3% | — |
| 269d | Trtr3 | January 27 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,787 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 269d | yougotme | January 27 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,808 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 269d | Lukyyyyyyy2 fills | January 27 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,075 | +$68 +1.3% | 20 |
| 269d | ILOVEYOUBABYZZ | January 27 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,920 | +$80 +1.0% | 20 |
| 269d | Sonix | January 27 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,186 | +$168 +7.7% | 21 |
| 269d | b3tm0re | January 26 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,125 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 269d | xcvsdf2342wer | January 28 | SellNo44¢ → 100¢ | $1,628 | −$2,072 −127% | — |
| 269d | retyrt45 | January 28 | BuyYes56¢ → 0¢ | $1,120 | −$1,120 −100% | 25 |
| 270d | Sonix | January 27 | BuyNo73¢ → 0¢ | $1,197 | −$1,197 −100% | 22 |
| 270d | TelAvivQuant | January 26 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,960 | −$47 −2.4% | — |
| 270d | HowToBasic2 fills | January 25 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,500 | +$11 +0.3% | 20 |
| 270d |  sj49dk2 | January 25 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,100 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 270d | 12100K | January 25 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,182 | +$11 +0.5% | 20 |
| 270d | 12100K | January 26 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,920 | +$80 +4.2% | 20 |
| 270d | TelAvivQuant | January 26 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,715 | +$248 +5.3% | 20 |
| 271d | Sonix | January 26 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,065 | +$108 +10% | 21 |
| 271d | Sentinel61612 fills | January 28 | BuyNo65¢ → 100¢ | $6,922 | +$3,778 +55% | 22 |
| 271d | Sentinel61612 fills | January 28 | BuyYes36¢ → 0¢ | $2,520 | −$2,520 −100% | 24 |
| 271d | Warden65343 | January 28 | BuyNo66¢ → 100¢ | $1,320 | +$680 +52% | 22 |
| 271d | fghnsas2 fills | January 31 | SellYes35¢ → 100¢ | $7,595 | −$14,105 −186% | — |
| 271d | fghnsas | January 31 | BuyYes35¢ → 100¢ | $2,100 | +$3,900 +186% | 24 |
| 271d | rtyuhwAEdf4 fills | January 31 | BuyNo65¢ → 0¢ | $9,100 | −$9,100 −100% | 22 |
| 271d | rtyuhwAEdf2 fills | January 30 | SellNo64¢ → 0¢ | $13,805 | +$13,805 +100% | — |
| 271d | fghnsas4 fills | January 30 | BuyYes37¢ → 100¢ | $6,600 | +$11,400 +173% | 27 |
| 271d | rtyuhwAEdf4 fills | January 29 | SellNo64¢ → 0¢ | $9,600 | +$9,600 +100% | — |
| 271d | rtyuhwAEdf5 fills | January 29 | BuyNo64¢ → 0¢ | $12,800 | −$12,800 −100% | 22 |
| 271d | fghnsas | January 29 | SellYes36¢ → 100¢ | $1,800 | −$3,200 −178% | — |
| 271d | rtyuhwAEdf5 fills | January 28 | SellNo65¢ → 100¢ | $13,000 | −$7,000 −54% | — |
| 271d | rtyuhwAEdf4 fills | January 28 | BuyNo65¢ → 100¢ | $11,700 | +$6,300 +54% | 22 |
| 271d | fghnsas2 fills | January 27 | SellYes28¢ → 100¢ | $3,101 | −$7,899 −255% | — |
| 271d | rtyuhwAEdf6 fills | January 27 | BuyNo71¢ → 0¢ | $18,398 | −$18,398 −100% | 22 |
| 271d | rtyuhwAEdf3 fills | January 27 | SellNo71¢ → 0¢ | $8,460 | +$8,460 +100% | — |
| 271d | rtyuhwAEdf3 fills | January 26 | SellNo47¢ → 100¢ | $6,990 | −$8,010 −115% | — |
| 271d | rtyuhwAEdf4 fills | January 26 | BuyNo47¢ → 100¢ | $8,050 | +$8,950 +111% | 23 |
| 271d | rtyuhwAEdf2 fills | January 26 | BuyYes55¢ → 0¢ | $2,750 | −$2,750 −100% | 22 |
| 271d | fghnsas | January 26 | BuyYes52¢ → 0¢ | $1,560 | −$1,560 −100% | 22 |
0xCryptonix1,000 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for January 31 means the market gives it about 100%.