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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 218d | Will Mamdani make NYC buses free by March 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,362 | +$14 +1.1% | 4 | |
| 256d | CHISCARU | Will Mamdani make NYC buses free by March 31? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,009 | +$60 +6.0% | 4 |
| 317d | f2hf84hg52h5 | Will Mamdani make NYC buses free by March 31? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,259 | +$251 +11% | 4 |
| 352d | nanhaii | Will Mamdani make NYC buses free by March 31? | SellNo76¢ → 100¢ | $1,435 | −$453 −32% | — |
| 353d | Will Mamdani make NYC buses free by March 31? | SellNo77¢ → 100¢ | $2,755 | −$815 −30% | — | |
| 354d | Will Mamdani make NYC buses free by March 31? | BuyNo77¢ → 100¢ | $3,022 | +$917 +30% | 4 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur: 1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election. 2. The New York City Metropolitan Transportation Authority implements a policy under which the base local fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes operating within New York City (New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company) is $0 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The policy will be considered to have been implemented if it is actively in effect by the resolution date. The enactment of a policy without its implementation will not alone qualify. Policies which are blocked by legal or other means before they go into effect will similarly not qualify. Limited pilots (e.g., a subset of routes or specific days), temporary “fare holidays,” or targeted free-fare programs (e.g., only youth, seniors, or low-income riders) do not qualify. Policies which include limited exceptions such as express-bus fares, fares on specific lines (such as Airport lines) or other exclusions will still qualify as long as a general policy of $0 fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes is in effect. If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.