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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 3% | — | −1 pts | 2¢ · 4¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| October 31 | 3% | +2 pts | +2 pts | <1¢ · 5¢ (4¢) | $110 | in 8d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,369 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 66d |  tetrase | Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,217 | −$9 −0.7% | — |
| 84d |  MrNoItAll | Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,298 | +$38 +2.9% | 4 |
| 89d | tetrase | Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,908 | +$92 +4.8% | 4 |
| 95d | 0x1fd0…c6a7 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by July 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,104 | +$5 +0.5% | 4 |
| 96d | BlindAndDeaf | Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,384 | +$84 +6.1% | 4 |
Haradwaith46 shares
Sandoval155320 sharestetrase250 shares
KingZeManel51 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed. Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran. In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 3¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 3%.