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Polymarket · CultureClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 481d | bestfriends2 fills | Will NASA estimate a 5% chance of asteroid hitting Earth? | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,641 | +$18 +0.2% | 4 |
| 487d | CrazyBang4 fills | Will NASA estimate a 5% chance of asteroid hitting Earth? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $17,373 | +$901 +5.2% | 4 |
| 548d | bobbyboba | Will NASA estimate a 5% chance of asteroid hitting Earth? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,976 | −$24 −1.2% | — |
| 607d |  Tenebrus7 | Will NASA estimate a 5% chance of asteroid hitting Earth? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,443 | −$57 −4.0% | — |
| 611d | Oznog | Will NASA estimate a 5% chance of asteroid hitting Earth? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,747 | +$197 +11% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) estimates that the 2024 YR4 asteroid has a 5% or greater chance of hitting Earth at any point by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be information from NASA, specifically the Center for Near Earth Object Studies chart for Impact Risk Data, available here: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/. Look for "(2024 YR4)" under "Object Designation", and check the figure under "Impact Probability (Cumulative)" to find the information that will be used to resolve this market.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.