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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 15, 2026 | 100% | +3 pts | +21 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 31, 2025 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 31, 2026 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 263d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | January 31, 2026 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,424 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 263d |  noreasapa | January 31, 2026 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,660 | +$9 +0.5% | 20 |
| 280d |  ZhangMuZhi- | February 15, 2026 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,858 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 294d |  MasonsConqueredRome | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,664 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if New Glenn Flight 3 (NG-3) successfully launches from its launch pad by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin (https://www.youtube.com/@blueorigin/streams), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of New Glenn with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for February 15, 2026 means the market gives it about 100%.