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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 660d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly | GPT-5 released in 2024? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,726 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 663d | surf2 fills | GPT-5 released in 2024? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $8,111 | +$205 +2.5% | 20 |
| 669d |  Kettle | GPT-5 released in 2024? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,052 | −$14 −1.4% | — |
| 672d | couchfarm | GPT-5 released in 2024? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,722 | +$118 +4.3% | 20 |
| 674d |  Bertapotamous | GPT-5 released in 2024? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,606 | −$51 −3.2% | — |
| 676d |  ComeBackOrBust | GPT-5 released in 2024? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,042 | −$31 −3.0% | — |
| 681d | ComeBackOrBust | GPT-5 released in 2024? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,032 | +$41 +4.0% | 20 |
| 685d | jj053 fills | GPT-5 released in 2024? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $44,692 | +$1,923 +4.3% | 20 |
| 694d |  AvocadoLu | GPT-5 released in 2024? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,093 | −$16 −1.5% | — |
| 695d | cydiater | GPT-5 released in 2024? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,029 | −$32 −3.1% | — |
| 700d | Certify0148 | GPT-5 released in 2024? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,818 | −$85 −4.7% | — |
| 701d | 0xfd818 fills | GPT-5 released in 2024? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $46,840 | +$1,870 +4.0% | 20 |
| 704d | Certify01482 fills | GPT-5 released in 2024? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $9,896 | +$634 +6.4% | 20 |
| 708d | AvocadoLu | GPT-5 released in 2024? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,124 | +$109 +5.2% | 20 |
| 709d | captainamerica | GPT-5 released in 2024? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,045 | +$137 +6.7% | 20 |
| 711d | anon1565 | GPT-5 released in 2024? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,865 | −$309 −8.0% | — |
| 716d |  chaliceenergy | GPT-5 released in 2024? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,268 | −$178 −4.2% | — |
| 716d | tracingwoodgrains | GPT-5 released in 2024? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,288 | −$137 −4.2% | — |
| 717d | chaliceenergy | GPT-5 released in 2024? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,299 | +$147 +3.4% | 20 |
| 722d |  carp2 fills | GPT-5 released in 2024? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,176 | +$197 +3.8% | 20 |
| 722d | Alfanhio | GPT-5 released in 2024? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,515 | +$77 +5.1% | 20 |
| 722d |  Car | GPT-5 released in 2024? | BuyNo76¢ → 100¢ | $3,261 | +$1,048 +32% | 20 |
| 726d |  Wickier2 fills | GPT-5 released in 2024? | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $3,256 | +$1,095 +34% | 20 |
| 728d | lesse2 fills | GPT-5 released in 2024? | SellYes22¢ → 0¢ | $4,769 | +$4,769 +100% | — |
| 733d |  PropheticFire | GPT-5 released in 2024? | SellNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,079 | −$221 −20% | — |
| 742d | Wickier | GPT-5 released in 2024? | SellNo74¢ → 100¢ | $1,245 | −$437 −35% | — |
| 743d | wayofthewind | GPT-5 released in 2024? | SellNo75¢ → 100¢ | $1,277 | −$426 −33% | — |
| 744d | wayofthewind | GPT-5 released in 2024? | BuyNo76¢ → 100¢ | $1,393 | +$440 +32% | 20 |
| 758d | lesse | GPT-5 released in 2024? | BuyYes30¢ → 0¢ | $5,207 | −$5,207 −100% | 26 |
| 760d | tracingwoodgrains | GPT-5 released in 2024? | BuyNo73¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$925 +37% | 20 |
| 764d | 9289eE8Ae0943fFdeABd-17157931966492 fills | GPT-5 released in 2024? | SellNo70¢ → 100¢ | $2,338 | −$999 −43% | — |
| 767d | PropheticFire | GPT-5 released in 2024? | BuyNo74¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$516 +34% | 20 |
| 769d |  ImJustKen | GPT-5 released in 2024? | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $1,612 | +$548 +34% | 20 |
| 778d | 9289eE8Ae0943fFdeABd-17157931966492 fills | GPT-5 released in 2024? | BuyNo68¢ → 100¢ | $2,690 | +$1,291 +48% | 20 |
| 786d |  goatconnoisseur | GPT-5 released in 2024? | BuyYes40¢ → 0¢ | $1,800 | −$1,800 −100% | 21 |
| 810d | Kapii | GPT-5 released in 2024? | BuyNo61¢ → 100¢ | $2,755 | +$1,762 +64% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5, or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.