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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 0% | −1 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 31 | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 15 | 0% | −2 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 28 | 100% | 0 pts | +54 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 31 | 100% | +1 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 260d | pechenka2311 | March 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,497 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 260d | 0fb15080c50ce5251cffa7fa08f2eb612bf725c3 | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $15,027 | +$15 +0.1% | 4 |
| 260d | 0fb15080c50ce5251cffa7fa08f2eb612bf725c3 | February 28 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,489 | +$10 +0.1% | 4 |
| 260d | Palace8709 | February 28 | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,923 | +$30 +0.2% | 4 |
| 260d |  Bromley863 fills | February 28 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,264 | +$52 +1.2% | 4 |
| 260d | bolla-577 | February 28 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,572 | +$8 +0.5% | 4 |
| 260d | sdhyky | February 28 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,400 | +$7 +0.3% | 4 |
| 260d |  OraculumNobius2 fills | February 28 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,926 | +$33 +0.5% | 4 |
| 260d | worldclassdegen | February 28 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,226 | −$40 −1.8% | — |
| 260d | grgerg | February 28 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,710 | −$30 −1.7% | — |
| 260d |  ggmggn3 fills | February 28 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $14,484 | +$171 +1.2% | 4 |
| 261d | 12100K2 fills | February 28 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,601 | +$37 +1.0% | 4 |
| 261d | sybaujustbet | February 28 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,008 | −$35 −1.8% | — |
| 261d | jiyge | February 28 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,893 | −$22 −1.2% | — |
| 261d | ggmggn | March 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,778 | +$22 +0.8% | 4 |
| 261d | JoeBlack01 | March 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,480 | +$20 +0.8% | 4 |
| 261d | OraculumNobius2 fills | March 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,184 | +$18 +0.8% | 4 |
| 261d |  tsybka2 fills | March 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,061 | −$71 −0.9% | — |
| 261d | hacked-capybara | February 28 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | −$81 −3.2% | — |
| 261d |  Rybkaoi | February 28 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,686 | −$53 −2.0% | — |
| 261d | Madsolbro | February 28 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,789 | −$32 −1.8% | — |
| 261d | worldclassdegen | February 28 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,578 | +$32 +2.0% | 4 |
| 261d | whysolazy | February 28 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,373 | +$99 +2.9% | 4 |
| 261d | Madsolbro | February 28 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,748 | +$73 +4.2% | 4 |
| 261d | sybaujustbet | February 28 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,982 | +$61 +3.1% | 4 |
| 261d | tsybka3 fills | March 31 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $10,622 | +$2,294 +22% | 4 |
| 261d | tsybka4 fills | February 28 | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $13,093 | +$4,049 +31% | 4 |
| 261d |  CommissaireJuve | February 28 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $12,462 | +$329 +2.6% | 4 |
| 261d |  leCommissaire | February 28 | BuyYes40¢ → 100¢ | $1,096 | +$1,638 +149% | 4 |
| 261d | leCommissaire | March 31 | BuyYes54¢ → 100¢ | $2,716 | +$2,284 +84% | 4 |
| 261d | elPolloLoco8 fills | February 28 | BuyYes45¢ → 100¢ | $14,504 | +$17,979 +124% | 7 |
| 262d | nanthDrake | March 31 | BuyNo53¢ → 0¢ | $1,947 | −$1,947 −100% | 4 |
| 262d | nanthDrake | February 28 | SellNo81¢ → 0¢ | $1,947 | +$1,947 +100% | — |
| 262d | hollow8112 fills | February 28 | BuyNo69¢ → 0¢ | $5,788 | −$5,788 −100% | 4 |
| 262d | Tea-of-Pear | February 28 | BuyNo78¢ → 0¢ | $10,000 | −$10,000 −100% | 4 |
| 262d | Tea-of-Pear | March 31 | BuyNo49¢ → 0¢ | $3,783 | −$3,783 −100% | 4 |
| 262d | Scottp1887 | February 28 | SellNo71¢ → 0¢ | $1,089 | +$1,089 +100% | — |
| 263d | saikyo666 | February 28 | BuyNo72¢ → 0¢ | $1,100 | −$1,100 −100% | 4 |
| 265d | nanthDrake2 fills | February 28 | BuyNo65¢ → 0¢ | $4,633 | −$4,633 −100% | 4 |
| 265d |  Economus | January 31 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,015 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 265d | nanthDrake | January 31 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,869 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 265d | Coordinated-Leather5 fills | January 31 | SellNo85¢ → 100¢ | $8,790 | −$1,547 −18% | — |
| 265d | Threadbare-Signal | January 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,988 | +$12 +0.4% | 4 |
| 265d | Artemion | January 31 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,328 | −$81 −2.4% | — |
| 265d | wangorino | January 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,303 | +$8 +0.6% | 4 |
| 265d | Giseda | January 31 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,219 | −$23 −1.9% | — |
| 266d |  NiceDuckBro | January 31 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,554 | −$48 −3.1% | — |
| 268d | hollow811 | January 31 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,975 | −$91 −4.6% | — |
| 269d | pooperr2 fills | January 31 | SellNo83¢ → 100¢ | $2,469 | −$514 −21% | — |
| 269d |  noirdesir | January 31 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,059 | −$56 −5.3% | — |
| 269d | erstgrfxd | February 28 | SellNo54¢ → 0¢ | $1,470 | +$1,470 +100% | — |
| 269d | ftyjtf3 fills | February 28 | SellNo54¢ → 0¢ | $4,860 | +$4,860 +100% | — |
| 269d | gsegrxdf2 fills | February 28 | SellNo54¢ → 0¢ | $4,710 | +$4,710 +100% | — |
| 269d | gsegrxdf3 fills | February 28 | SellYes47¢ → 100¢ | $5,580 | −$6,420 −115% | — |
| 269d | fweafa | February 28 | SellNo54¢ → 0¢ | $1,470 | +$1,470 +100% | — |
| 269d | qqwewef | February 28 | SellNo53¢ → 0¢ | $1,590 | +$1,590 +100% | — |
| 269d | ftyjtf | February 28 | BuyNo54¢ → 0¢ | $1,620 | −$1,620 −100% | 4 |
| 269d | gsegrxdf | February 28 | BuyYes47¢ → 100¢ | $2,820 | +$3,180 +113% | 5 |
| 269d | fawefaew | February 28 | SellYes47¢ → 100¢ | $1,410 | −$1,590 −113% | — |
| 269d | fweafa | February 28 | SellYes46¢ → 100¢ | $1,380 | −$1,620 −117% | — |
63fad9,500 shares
K-ALPHA5,000 shares
WhyShouldIStop3,211 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Myrnohrad by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Myrnohrad will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Rodynske" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of Myrnohrad, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Myrnohrad Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/myrnohrad.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qCLFQNiDKN2ABe5Q9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 0%.