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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 540d | MAGA.MUSK | Will Russia capture Siversk before May? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,885 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 541d | LechMercur1 | Will Russia capture Siversk before May? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,105 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 557d |  gopfan2 | Will Russia capture Siversk before May? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,309 | −$125 −2.3% | — |
| 562d |  BeneGesseritVoice | Will Russia capture Siversk before May? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,088 | +$54 +2.6% | 4 |
| 574d | nedsta | Will Russia capture Siversk before May? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,556 | +$87 +5.6% | 4 |
| 576d |  Euan | Will Russia capture Siversk before May? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,935 | +$146 +7.5% | 4 |
| 576d | CompulsiveGambler | Will Russia capture Siversk before May? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,325 | +$175 +7.5% | 4 |
| 584d | amused85 | Will Russia capture Siversk before May? | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $4,654 | +$624 +13% | 4 |
| 593d | Wyrdylak4 fills | Will Russia capture Siversk before May? | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $8,998 | +$1,405 +16% | 4 |
| 599d |  Dankwizart420 | Will Russia capture Siversk before May? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,193 | +$191 +8.7% | 4 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Siversk railroad station located off of Zaliznychna Vulytsia by April 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/siversk+train+station.jpeg Siversk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/siversk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/WCVn7wGSy1i289Nw8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.