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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 100% | +1 pts | +8 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 22 | 100% | +1 pts | +15 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 30 | 0% | −2 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 31 | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 308d |  bamesjond | December 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,399 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 309d | arttheking | December 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 309d | bamesjond | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,501 | −$6 −0.4% | — |
| 309d | bamesjond2 fills | December 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,713 | +$9 +0.1% | 4 |
| 309d | bamesjond | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,053 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 309d | yougotme | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,486 | −$14 −0.4% | — |
| 309d |  Nobo | December 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,034 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 309d | Nobo | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,787 | +$11 +0.1% | 4 |
| 309d |  isunou | December 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $33,046 | +$75 +0.2% | 4 |
| 309d | yougotme | December 22 | BuyYes100¢ | $1,518 | +$8 +0.5% | 4 |
| 309d |  awaylot | December 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,682 | +$8 +0.3% | 4 |
| 309d | pepe122 | December 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,048 | −$35 −0.9% | — |
| 309d | pepe122 | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,074 | +$8 +0.2% | 4 |
| 309d |  ComingBack | December 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,146 | −$10 −0.9% | — |
| 310d |  yuri74 fills | December 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $13,750 | −$146 −1.1% | — |
| 310d |  ggmggn2 fills | December 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,840 | +$25 +0.3% | 4 |
| 310d | ggmggn2 fills | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,720 | +$12 +0.3% | 4 |
| 310d |  Wanna.be.rich | December 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,254 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 310d |  K-ALPHA | December 31 | SellYes100¢ | $3,079 | −$15 −0.5% | — |
| 310d |  pinkpontiac1 | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,126 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 310d |  Sierra-Madre | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,697 | −$8 −0.5% | — |
| 310d | djaklsdjla1..02zm3 fills | December 31 | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $4,475 | −$531 −12% | — |
| 310d | djaklsdjla1..02zm | December 22 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,365 | −$14 −1.0% | — |
| 310d |  starship0903 | December 22 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,418 | +$29 +1.2% | 4 |
| 310d | yougotme2 fills | December 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,147 | +$101 +2.4% | 4 |
| 310d |  Mr.Fister | December 31 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,142 | +$58 +5.1% | 4 |
| 310d | bolla-5772 fills | December 31 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $6,835 | +$621 +9.1% | 4 |
| 310d | bolla-577 | December 22 | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $1,961 | +$639 +33% | 6 |
| 310d | K-ALPHA | December 22 | BuyYes73¢ → 100¢ | $1,071 | +$404 +38% | 6 |
| 310d | awaylot | December 31 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $2,095 | −$243 −12% | — |
| 311d | makeadream2 fills | December 22 | SellYes69¢ → 100¢ | $3,514 | −$1,556 −44% | — |
| 311d |  tsybka | December 31 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,076 | −$95 −8.8% | — |
| 311d | tsybka | December 31 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,975 | +$173 +8.8% | 4 |
| 312d | 123erty5 fills | December 22 | SellYes78¢ → 100¢ | $14,820 | −$4,154 −28% | — |
| 312d | makeadream | December 31 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,208 | −$62 −5.1% | — |
| 312d | nicolasGurr | December 31 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,007 | −$53 −5.3% | — |
| 312d | 123erty4 fills | December 31 | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $19,759 | −$3,156 −16% | — |
| 313d | Argentflight | December 31 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,004 | −$53 −5.3% | — |
| 313d |  gghtx3 fills | December 22 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $7,280 | +$1,435 +20% | 4 |
| 313d | arttheking | December 22 | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,010 | −$150 −15% | — |
| 313d | Perfumed-Bracelet | December 31 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $4,745 | +$255 +5.4% | 4 |
| 313d | djaklsdjla1..02zm2 fills | December 22 | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $2,727 | +$920 +34% | 4 |
| 313d | ComingBack | December 31 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,099 | +$57 +5.2% | 4 |
| 313d | awaylot | December 31 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,422 | +$107 +7.5% | 4 |
| 313d | 123erty2 fills | December 31 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $3,637 | +$671 +18% | 4 |
| 313d | 123erty2 fills | December 22 | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $3,376 | +$980 +29% | 4 |
| 314d | Zig69Zag | December 22 | BuyNo26¢ → 0¢ | $3,345 | −$3,345 −100% | 10 |
| 314d | K-ALPHA | December 31 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,014 | +$76 +7.5% | 4 |
| 314d | makeadream2 fills | December 31 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $4,086 | +$326 +8.0% | 4 |
| 314d | needyourcash | December 22 | SellYes77¢ → 100¢ | $1,745 | −$509 −29% | — |
| 314d | sirdenal | December 31 | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $2,123 | −$272 −13% | — |
| 316d | needyourcash | December 31 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,626 | +$104 +6.4% | 4 |
| 316d | gghtx2 fills | December 31 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $2,382 | +$370 +16% | 4 |
| 316d | riaxox | December 31 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $3,455 | +$659 +19% | 4 |
| 317d |  gopfan2 | December 31 | SellYes81¢ → 100¢ | $4,581 | −$1,069 −23% | — |
| 317d |  BigRabbit3 fills | December 31 | SellYes79¢ → 100¢ | $12,592 | −$3,409 −27% | — |
| 317d | yuri74 fills | December 31 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $11,909 | +$2,163 +18% | 4 |
| 318d | elPolloLoco | December 31 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $3,078 | +$645 +21% | 4 |
| 318d | 83803203204082 | December 31 | SellYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,004 | −$206 −20% | — |
| 319d |  DumplingBMF | December 31 | SellYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,960 | −$485 −25% | — |
dimi6oni232 shares
Joe-Biden20,000 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Siversk railroad station located off of Zaliznychna Vulytsia by September 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/siversk+train+station.jpeg Siversk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/siversk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/WCVn7wGSy1i289Nw8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 100%.