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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2025 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 296d | onekey093 fills | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $35,465 | −$36 −0.1% | — |
| 296d |  VegemiteLover | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,997 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 296d | rtreter | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,985 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 296d |  Kiddosss | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $39,920 | −$80 −0.2% | — |
| 296d |  Mythrust2 fills | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $72,069 | +$127 +0.2% | 2 |
| 296d | rtreter | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,953 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 296d | jwp99994 fills | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $186,334 | +$401 +0.2% | 2 |
| 296d | MARCUSW3 | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $19,924 | −$76 −0.4% | — |
| 296d | VegemiteLover | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,604 | +$5 +0.1% | 2 |
| 296d | tommyaltaccount | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,102 | +$5 +0.1% | 2 |
| 296d | ex200 | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,057 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 296d |  Mogamboo | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,001 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 296d |  kovtunyk2 fills | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $33,566 | +$34 +0.1% | 2 |
| 296d | philthatremains | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $13,540 | −$27 −0.2% | — |
| 296d | philthatremains | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,553 | +$14 +0.1% | 2 |
| 296d | LennixOKX | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $13,520 | −$27 −0.2% | — |
| 296d | LennixOKX | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,533 | +$14 +0.1% | 2 |
| 296d | amandacarpenter | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $13,507 | −$27 −0.2% | — |
| 296d | amandacarpenter | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,521 | +$14 +0.1% | 2 |
| 296d | CMAdocs | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $13,503 | −$27 −0.2% | — |
| 296d | CMAdocs | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,517 | +$14 +0.1% | 2 |
| 296d | sguilbeault | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $13,518 | −$27 −0.2% | — |
| 296d | sguilbeault | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,531 | +$14 +0.1% | 2 |
| 296d | TheApeList | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $13,536 | −$27 −0.2% | — |
| 296d | TheApeList | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,549 | +$14 +0.1% | 2 |
| 296d | GrrrGraphics | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $13,523 | −$27 −0.2% | — |
| 296d | GrrrGraphics | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,537 | +$14 +0.1% | 2 |
| 296d | WinterbleShow | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $13,531 | −$27 −0.2% | — |
| 296d | WinterbleShow | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,544 | +$14 +0.1% | 2 |
| 296d | ETCCorporate | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $13,541 | −$27 −0.2% | — |
| 296d | ETCCorporate | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,554 | +$14 +0.1% | 2 |
| 296d | ChivalryGuild | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $13,551 | −$27 −0.2% | — |
| 296d | alliswell | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $28,804 | +$58 +0.2% | 2 |
| 296d | ChivalryGuild | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,551 | +$27 +0.2% | 2 |
| 296d | turingou | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $13,535 | −$27 −0.2% | — |
| 296d | turingou | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,549 | +$14 +0.1% | 2 |
| 296d | ljin18 | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $13,502 | −$27 −0.2% | — |
| 296d | ljin18 | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,516 | +$14 +0.1% | 2 |
| 296d | KGSmith | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $13,521 | −$27 −0.2% | — |
| 296d | KGSmith | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,535 | +$14 +0.1% | 2 |
| 296d | filmfranz | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $13,543 | −$27 −0.2% | — |
| 296d | filmfranz | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,557 | +$14 +0.1% | 2 |
| 296d | oooga | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,416 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 296d | natbrunell | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $13,514 | −$27 −0.2% | — |
| 296d | natbrunell | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,528 | +$14 +0.1% | 2 |
| 296d | SylvesterTurner | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $13,530 | −$27 −0.2% | — |
| 296d | SylvesterTurner | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,543 | +$14 +0.1% | 2 |
| 296d | AdamRichman | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $13,501 | −$27 −0.2% | — |
| 296d | AdamRichman | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,515 | +$14 +0.1% | 2 |
| 296d | mattyglesias | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $13,518 | −$27 −0.2% | — |
| 296d | mattyglesias | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,532 | +$14 +0.1% | 2 |
| 296d | PayPal | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $13,504 | −$27 −0.2% | — |
| 296d | PayPal | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,518 | +$14 +0.1% | 2 |
| 296d | Gatewayxyz | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $13,524 | −$27 −0.2% | — |
| 296d | Gatewayxyz | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,538 | +$14 +0.1% | 2 |
| 296d | Multichannel | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $13,500 | −$27 −0.2% | — |
| 296d | Multichannel | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,514 | +$14 +0.1% | 2 |
| 296d | ChrisNalty | December 31, 2025 | SellNo>99¢ | $13,541 | −$27 −0.2% | — |
| 296d | ChrisNalty | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,554 | +$14 +0.1% | 2 |
| 296d |  dball | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,117 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for December 31, 2025 means the market gives it about 0%.
