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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d | Alegrandebig2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? | BuyNo98¢ | $5,390 | +$14 +0.3% | 20 |
| 204d | ShayaEredyon | Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? | SellNo92¢ → 98¢ | $1,661 | −$113 −6.8% | — |
| 283d | Smallpeepee | Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? | BuyNo93¢ → 98¢ | $2,238 | +$126 +5.6% | 20 |
AMAM132,527 shares
JShurA872,326 shares
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b042,400 shares
Slowroasted834 shares
Belgaron544 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 2¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 2%.