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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 716d | DapperChapper | Will Trump claim victory by midnight? | BuyNo100¢ | $3,293 | +$17 +0.5% | 4 |
| 717d | HelloWorld12 | Will Trump claim victory by midnight? | BuyYes50¢ → 0¢ | $2,132 | −$2,132 −100% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump claims victory in the 2024 US presidential election by November 5, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". For example, Trump's 2020 election night speech would qualify (https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/donald-trump-2020-election-night-speech-transcript), where he stated "Frankly, we did win this election." Any public statement from Trump written or verbal will qualify. Speeches in which Trump begins speaking within the time frame of this market will qualify, even if his declaration of victory falls outside the markets timeframe. The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Trump. A consensus of credible reporting will be used to determine whether Trump declared victory in the statement.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.