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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 0% | −11 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| December 31 | 0% | −17 pts | −34 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 295d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | December 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,239 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 550d | Uryxen | May 31 | SellYes33¢ → 0¢ | $17,396 | +$17,396 +100% | — |
| 550d | Uryxen | May 31 | BuyYes34¢ → 0¢ | $17,923 | −$17,923 −100% | 29 |
This is a market on the likelihood of Trump reducing tariffs on Mexico by a specified date.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for May 31 means the market gives it about 0%.