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| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 22 | 67¢ → 100¢ | $22 | +$7 +49% |
| US recession by end of 2026?Ends in 98d | Yes | 120 | 12¢ → 9¢ | $10 | −$4 −29% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 10d | No | 17 | 57¢ → 34¢ | $6 | −$4 −41% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 48 | 30¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$14 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86d | US x China tariff agreement by December 31? | SellNo9¢ | $8 |
| 87d | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SellYes2¢ | $7 |
| 88d | Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? | SellNo80¢ | $16 |
| 91d | Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? | BuyNo75¢ | $15 |
| 91d | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BuyYes4¢ | $15 |
| 92d | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BuyNo30¢ | $15 |
| 92d | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July? | BuyYes67¢ | $15 |
| 99d | US x China tariff agreement by December 31? | BuyNo17¢ | $15 |
| 100d | AI bubble burst in 2026? | SellNo82¢ | $16 |
| 112d | US x China tariff agreement by December 31? | SellNo2¢ | $2 |
| 121d | US x China tariff agreement by December 31? | BuyNo14¢ | $12 |
| 127d | US recession by end of 2026? | BuyYes12¢ | $15 |
| 130d | US recession by end of 2026? | SellYes11¢ | $6 |
| 134d | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BuyNo57¢ | $10 |
| 134d | AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? | SellNo4¢ | $12 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 5 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.