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| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 156 | 65¢ → 100¢ | $156 | +$55 +54% |
| Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 119 | 17¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 139d | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? | BuyYes65¢ | $103 |
| 147d | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | BuyYes26¢ | $10 |
| 147d | Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? | SellYes93¢ | $65 |
| 147d | Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | SellYes10¢ | $7 |
| 147d | Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? | SellYes92¢ | $34 |
| 160d | Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? | BuyYes17¢ | $12 |
| 160d | Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | BuyYes7¢ | $5 |
| 160d | Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026? | BuyYes23¢ | $15 |
| 263d | Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | BuyYes17¢ | $20 |
| 271d | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | BuyYes<1¢ | $10 |
| 273d | Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? | BuyYes53¢ | $20 |
| 273d | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo73¢ | $10 |
| 273d | Will the US strike Somalia next? | BuyNo1¢ | $9 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 8 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.