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| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 43 | 57¢ → 100¢ | $43 | +$18 +75% |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 27 | 36¢ → 100¢ | $27 | +$17 +178% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 37 | 67¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$25 −100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 6 | 85¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 104 | 24¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$25 −100% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 143 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Iran strike on US military by February 28?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 11 | 89¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 250d | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BuyNo67¢ | $25 |
| 250d | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyNo89¢ | $10 |
| 250d | US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes36¢ | $10 |
| 250d | Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? | BuyNo24¢ | $25 |
| 250d | Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? | BuyNo57¢ | $25 |
| 250d | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BuyNo85¢ | $5 |
| 250d | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | BuyYes1¢ | $1 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 50 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.