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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 15 | 100% | 0 pts | +5 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 30 | 100% | 0 pts | +1 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 163d | Trump2028 | May 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,199 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 163d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA5 fills | May 15 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $21,399 | +$921 +4.3% | 10 |
| 163d | Xaci | June 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,113 | +$2 +0.1% | 10 |
| 164d |  TheAugur | May 15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,005 | +$29 +0.6% | 10 |
| 165d |  The-Joker | May 15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,056 | +$11 +1.0% | 10 |
| 165d | ScaryDream | May 15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | +$16 +1.1% | 10 |
| 165d |  betwick | May 15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,663 | +$24 +1.5% | 10 |
| 166d | TwoChina | June 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,237 | +$2 +0.2% | 10 |
| 167d | TheReturnOfDarthMaul | June 30 | BuyYes100¢ | $1,873 | +$9 +0.5% | 10 |
| 168d | Niseko | May 15 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,030 | −$115 −5.7% | — |
| 168d | Dafu0715 | June 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,815 | +$11 +0.6% | 10 |
| 170d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA | May 15 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,062 | −$64 −6.0% | — |
| 171d |  SnowballHustle | May 15 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,098 | −$42 −3.8% | — |
| 174d |  GoriIIa2 fills | May 15 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $5,591 | +$397 +7.1% | 10 |
| 175d | 0x4c68…6162 | May 1 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,018 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 176d | lordedward | May 1 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,502 | +$4 +0.1% | 10 |
| 176d | Bukaj | May 1 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,094 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 176d | lightup001 | May 15 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,162 | +$93 +8.0% | 10 |
| 176d | margosenorita | June 30 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,474 | −$26 −1.8% | — |
| 176d | margosenorita | June 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,494 | +$6 +0.4% | 10 |
| 176d |  ScottyNooo | May 1 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,149 | +$9 +0.1% | 10 |
| 176d | Dafu07157 fills | May 1 | BuyNo>99¢ | $22,973 | +$112 +0.5% | 10 |
| 176d | GoriIIa | May 1 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,364 | +$28 +0.2% | 10 |
| 177d |  CongMingLabs | May 1 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,220 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 177d | grinder456 | May 15 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,044 | +$117 +11% | 10 |
| 178d |  AllByMyseIf2 fills | May 1 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,220 | +$34 +1.5% | 10 |
| 178d |  nibelung.retired | May 15 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $4,838 | +$406 +8.4% | 10 |
| 178d | 37ordinary | May 1 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,303 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 179d | texture | May 1 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,661 | −$31 −0.4% | — |
| 179d |  elmcap2 | May 1 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,905 | +$20 +1.1% | 10 |
| 180d | Niseko | May 1 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,970 | +$30 +1.0% | 10 |
| 180d |  WarriorPooh | May 15 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,015 | −$55 −5.4% | — |
| 181d |  Trading4Fridge3 fills | May 15 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $6,396 | +$2,303 +36% | 10 |
| 182d | topsignalD | May 15 | BuyNo19¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 10 |
| 182d | texture4 fills | May 1 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,912 | +$81 +1.7% | 10 |
| 182d | texture | May 15 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,026 | +$225 +22% | 10 |
| 182d | 0x0bfd…a4bb | May 15 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,077 | +$175 +16% | 10 |
| 183d | panzer43561 | May 15 | SellYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,049 | −$450 −43% | — |
| 183d | usernamegoeshere2 | May 15 | SellNo14¢ → 0¢ | $1,212 | +$1,212 +100% | — |
| 183d |  mombil | May 15 | BuyYes50¢ → 100¢ | $1,880 | +$1,915 +102% | 10 |
| 183d |  Mine-Carrying-Dolphin | May 15 | BuyYes40¢ → 100¢ | $1,028 | +$1,559 +152% | 10 |
| 183d | 37ordinary3 fills | May 1 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,329 | +$43 +0.7% | 10 |
| 190d | 0xafEe2 | May 1 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,447 | +$32 +2.2% | 10 |
| 191d | Elastic-Universe | May 15 | SellYes39¢ → 100¢ | $1,004 | −$1,596 −159% | — |
| 191d | usernamegoeshere22 fills | May 15 | BuyNo55¢ → 0¢ | $4,074 | −$4,074 −100% | 10 |
| 197d | surf | May 1 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,986 | +$229 +5.7% | 10 |
| 200d | uwjierh | May 15 | SellYes65¢ → 100¢ | $2,581 | −$1,390 −54% | — |
| 208d | brdnx | May 15 | BuyYes52¢ → 100¢ | $2,656 | +$2,455 +92% | 10 |
| 211d |  AishahSofey | May 1 | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,023 | −$139 −14% | — |
| 224d |  1lI | May 1 | BuyYes36¢ → 0¢ | $1,042 | −$1,042 −100% | 10 |
| 224d |  Erasmus.2 fills | May 15 | SellYes76¢ → 100¢ | $4,562 | −$1,412 −31% | — |
| 224d | Erasmus. | May 1 | BuyNo65¢ → 100¢ | $2,084 | +$1,118 +54% | 10 |
| 224d | Erasmus. | May 15 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $5,093 | +$1,076 +21% | 10 |
| 224d | Erasmus. | May 1 | BuyYes49¢ → 0¢ | $1,216 | −$1,216 −100% | 10 |
| 227d | WarriorPooh | May 1 | BuyYes43¢ → 0¢ | $2,038 | −$2,038 −100% | 11 |
| 227d |  HowToBasic | May 15 | SellNo17¢ → 0¢ | $1,059 | +$1,059 +100% | — |
| 231d | HowToBasic | May 15 | BuyNo18¢ → 0¢ | $1,507 | −$1,507 −100% | 12 |
| 232d | Adventurous-Evaluator | May 1 | BuyNo63¢ → 100¢ | $1,215 | +$713 +59% | 10 |
| 233d | ajaaja | May 1 | BuyNo63¢ → 100¢ | $1,139 | +$669 +59% | 10 |
| 233d | TheReturnOfDarthMaul | May 1 | BuyYes42¢ → 0¢ | $1,155 | −$1,155 −100% | 10 |
WSmovin2,737 shares
ProfitMuhammedPBUH1,116 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for May 1 means the market gives it about 0%.