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Polymarket wallet 0x3b1a2498d0f5753968594bba35a0f1049c837c38 · on Polymarket since Jan 15, 2026 · also shown as Plaintive-Caftan
| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first?Settled - ready to redeem | US | 17 | 66¢ → 50¢ | $8 | −$3 −24% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike EditionSettled - ready to redeem | No | 5 | 58¢ → 100¢ | $5 | +$2 +72% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 29 | 34¢ → 15¢ | $4 | −$6 −57% |
| Will the US strike Iran next?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 63 | 24¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$15 −100% |
| U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 91 | 22¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will Luigi Mangione smile during next court appearance?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 32 | 59¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$19 −100% |
| Will the US strike Somalia next?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 30 | 43¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$13 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 272d | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | SellYes40¢ | $7 |
| 281d | Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition | BuyNo58¢ | $3 |
| 281d | U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? | BuyNo22¢ | $20 |
| 281d | Will Luigi Mangione smile during next court appearance? | BuyYes59¢ | $19 |
| 281d | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BuyYes34¢ | $10 |
| 281d | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | BuyYes37¢ | $6 |
| 281d | Will the US strike Somalia next? | BuyNo43¢ | $13 |
| 281d | Will the US strike Iran next? | BuyYes24¢ | $15 |
| 281d | Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | BuyUS66¢ | $11 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 1 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.