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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | 17% | +2 pts | +2 pts | 17¢ · 17¢ (<1¢) | $24.5K | in 746d |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 16% | −1 pts | 0 pts | 16¢ · 16¢ (<1¢) | $22.6K | in 746d |
| Jon Ossoff | 16% | 0 pts | +2 pts | 16¢ · 16¢ (<1¢) | $11.1K | in 746d |
| Kamala Harris | 7% | — | 0 pts | 7¢ · 7¢ (<1¢) | $4.54K | in 746d |
| Josh Shapiro | 5% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 5¢ · 6¢ (<1¢) | $3.19K | in 746d |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5% | — | 0 pts | 5¢ · 5¢ (<1¢) | $112 | in 746d |
| Andy Beshear | 3% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 3¢ · 4¢ (<1¢) | $444 | in 746d |
| James Talarico | 3% | — | 0 pts | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $5.59K | in 746d |
| Mark Kelly | 2% | — | 0 pts | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $42.5K | in 746d |
| Raphael Warnock | 2% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $603 | in 746d |
| Wes Moore | 2% | — | 0 pts | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $193 | in 746d |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 2% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | $609 | in 746d |
| Rahm Emanuel | 1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $58.3 | in 746d |
| Ro Khanna | 1% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $30.4K | in 746d |
| Bernie Sanders | 1% | 0 pts | — | 1¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $1.24K | in 746d |
| J.B. Pritzker | 1% | 0 pts | — | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $3.8K | in 746d |
| Chelsea Clinton | 1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | $359 | in 746d |
| Cory Booker | 1% | 0 pts | — | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $56.8K | in 746d |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 1% | — | — | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $1.73K | in 746d |
| Jon Stewart | 1% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $106 | in 746d |
| Michelle Obama | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $4.49K | in 746d |
| Roy Cooper | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $79.7 | in 746d |
| Chris Murphy | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $263 | in 746d |
| Ruben Gallego | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $440 | in 746d |
| Mark Cuban | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $212 | in 746d |
| Barack Obama | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $674 | in 746d |
| Hillary Clinton | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $692 | in 746d |
| Hunter Biden | <1% | 0 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $14.4K | in 746d |
| Chris Van Hollen | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $308 | in 746d |
| Stephen A. Smith | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $4.19K | in 746d |
| Gina Raimondo | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $2.56K | in 746d |
| Zohran Mamdani | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $1.17K | in 746d |
| Jared Polis | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $2.65K | in 746d |
| Phil Murphy | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $2.74K | in 746d |
| Jasmine Crockett | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $611 | in 746d |
| Abigail Spanberger | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $216 | in 746d |
| Hakeem Jeffries | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $2.09K | in 746d |
| Elissa Slotkin | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 746d |
| Josh Stein | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $579 | in 746d |
| Mitch Landrieu | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $48.8 | in 746d |
| LeBron James | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | $44.2 | in 746d |
| Tim Walz | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $2.72 | in 746d |
| John Fetterman | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| Liz Cheney | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| George Clooney | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| MrBeast | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $1.02K | in 746d |
| Oprah Winfrey | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $2.35 | in 746d |
| Andrew Yang | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| Beto O’Rourke | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $112 | in 746d |
| Kim Kardashian | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $123 | in 746d |
| Graham Platner | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| Adam Schiff | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| Alex Padilla | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap | Lock $1 for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | 17% | 15% | 2 pts | $0.992 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 16% | 14% | 2 pts | $0.987 |
| Jon Ossoff | 16% | 16% | 0 pts | $1.013 |
| Kamala Harris | 7% | 7% | 1 pts | $1.001 |
| Josh Shapiro | 5% | 5% | 1 pts | $1.002 |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5% | 5% | 0 pts | $1.004 |
| Andy Beshear | 3% | 5% | 1 pts | $0.998 |
| James Talarico | 3% | 2% | 1 pts | $1.005 |
| Mark Kelly | 2% | 4% | 1 pts | $0.994 |
| Raphael Warnock | 2% | 2% | 0 pts | $1.002 |
| Wes Moore | 2% | 2% | 0 pts | $1.000 |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 2% | <1% | 1 pts | $1.000 |
| Rahm Emanuel | 1% | 3% | 1 pts | $0.996 |
| Ro Khanna | 1% | 2% | 0 pts | $1.006 |
| Bernie Sanders | 1% | 1% | 1 pts | $0.998 |
| J.B. Pritzker | 1% | 3% | 2 pts | $0.994 |
| Michelle Obama | <1% | 2% | 1 pts | $0.996 |
| Chris Van Hollen | <1% | 1% | 1 pts | $1.009 |
| Hakeem Jeffries | <1% | 1% | 1 pts | $1.010 |
| Mitch Landrieu | <1% | 1% | 1 pts | $1.010 |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4h | neutralwave23 | Gavin Newsom | BuyYes18¢ → 17¢ | $1,199 | −$104 −8.7% | 15 |
| 4h | neutralwave23 | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | SellYes17¢ → 16¢ | $1,280 | +$86 +6.8% | — |
| 1d | neutralwave23 | Kamala Harris | BuyYes7¢ | $1,420 | −$11 −0.8% | 33 |
| 1d | neutralwave23 | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | BuyYes17¢ → 16¢ | $1,899 | −$129 −6.8% | 21 |
| 1d | neutralwave23 | Jon Ossoff | BuyYes16¢ | $2,848 | −$14 −0.5% | 37 |
| 1d | HerrieDavis | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | SellYes16¢ | $1,474 | +$21 +1.5% | — |
| 1d |  KnureKnume | Jon Ossoff | SellYes16¢ | $1,454 | +$5 +0.3% | — |
| 1d |  LiquidatedDegen2 fills | Jon Ossoff | BuyYes16¢ | $4,072 | +$17 +0.4% | 39 |
| 1d |  bigdihhh8882 fills | Gavin Newsom | BuyNo85¢ → 83¢ | $3,130 | −$69 −2.2% | 15 |
| 2d |  DickTurbin | Josh Shapiro | SellYes5¢ | $1,157 | −$41 −3.5% | — |
| 2d | DickTurbin | Jon Ossoff | SellYes15¢ → 16¢ | $2,718 | −$200 −7.3% | — |
| 2d | gfjt67tfjgh | Pete Buttigieg | BuyNo95¢ | $2,100 | −$3 −0.1% | 13 |
| 2d | HORRorma | James Talarico | SellNo97¢ | $3,654 | +$2 +0.1% | — |
| 2d | HORRorma | James Talarico | BuyNo97¢ | $3,660 | −$8 −0.2% | 12 |
| 2d | Caseysd | Gina Raimondo | SellNo>99¢ | $1,121 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 2d | Caseysd | Gina Raimondo | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,185 | −$1 −0.1% | 10 |
| 3d | 0x69f2…e45f6 fills | Gina Raimondo | SellNo>99¢ | $45,954 | −$23 −0.1% | — |
| 3d | 0x69f2…e45f5 fills | Gina Raimondo | BuyNo>99¢ | $46,000 | −$23 −0.1% | 10 |
| 3d |  LeopoldArschenbrenner | Wes Moore | BuyYes2¢ | $2,206 | −$165 −7.5% | 36 |
| 3d | cocococococo | Gavin Newsom | SellNo84¢ → 83¢ | $2,758 | +$32 +1.2% | — |
| 3d | futureDwight | Cory Booker | BuyYes1¢ | $1,199 | −$224 −19% | 13 |
| 3d | Varalant | Mark Cuban | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | −$1 −0.1% | 10 |
| 3d | fhtrr7 | Raphael Warnock | BuyNo98¢ | $2,150 | −$2 −0.1% | 11 |
| 4d | 0x69f2…e45f6 fills | Stephen A. Smith | SellNo>99¢ | $50,669 | −$25 −0.1% | — |
| 4d | 0x69f2…e45f6 fills | Stephen A. Smith | BuyNo>99¢ | $50,720 | −$25 −0.1% | 10 |
| 4d | Grinder6y7 | Raphael Warnock | SellNo98¢ | $2,791 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 4d | gfhgf76rtuf | Kamala Harris | SellNo93¢ | $9,590 | −$57 −0.6% | — |
| 4d | gfhgf76rtuf | Kamala Harris | BuyNo93¢ | $9,600 | +$46 +0.5% | 15 |
| 5d | chickendilla | James Talarico | BuyYes3¢ | $1,145 | −$20 −1.8% | 27 |
| 5d | HerbertAppreciator2 fills | Raphael Warnock | BuyYes2¢ | $6,875 | +$1,764 +26% | 45 |
| 5d |  de5nuts | Jon Ossoff | SellYes14¢ → 16¢ | $2,346 | −$314 −13% | — |
| 5d | RTIII | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | SellYes15¢ → 16¢ | $1,161 | −$61 −5.2% | — |
| 6d | fakeBRIDE | James Talarico | SellNo97¢ | $1,048 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 6d | Gugol876ygj7 | Wes Moore | SellNo98¢ | $2,557 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 6d | Grinder6y7 | Raphael Warnock | BuyNo98¢ | $2,800 | −$6 −0.2% | 11 |
| 6d | LooperHesh | Raphael Warnock | SellNo98¢ | $4,753 | +$0 +0.0% | — |
| 6d | fakeBRIDE | James Talarico | BuyNo97¢ | $1,050 | −$2 −0.2% | 11 |
| 6d | Old-Birthday | Hillary Clinton | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | −$3 −0.2% | 10 |
| 7d |  LinaBell | Kamala Harris | BuyYes7¢ | $4,625 | −$235 −5.1% | 42 |
| 7d | Zzzz87 | Josh Shapiro | BuyNo95¢ | $1,326 | $0 0.0% | 14 |
| 7d | Nesystem | James Talarico | BuyNo98¢ → 97¢ | $2,000 | −$11 −0.6% | 11 |
| 8d | Gugol876ygj7 | Wes Moore | BuyNo98¢ | $2,560 | +$1 +0.1% | 11 |
| 8d | infinitevanilla | Pete Buttigieg | SellYes5¢ | $1,123 | −$28 −2.5% | — |
| 8d | EYEball-815 | Wes Moore | BuyNo98¢ | $2,750 | +$1 +0.1% | 11 |
| 8d |  MSKW222227 fills | Jon Ossoff | BuyYes15¢ → 16¢ | $15,376 | +$406 +2.6% | 48 |
| 9d | Single-Challenge | Gavin Newsom | SellNo86¢ → 83¢ | $2,916 | +$82 +2.8% | — |
| 9d |  Optimus- | Kamala Harris | BuyYes7¢ | $1,500 | −$76 −5.1% | 33 |
| 10d |  TradeDeficitArchitect | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | SellNo82¢ → 84¢ | $1,352 | −$25 −1.9% | — |
| 10d | aaabbb | Kamala Harris | BuyYes7¢ | $5,049 | −$35 −0.7% | 42 |
| 10d | hmgj769 | Mark Kelly | BuyNo98¢ | $3,700 | +$11 +0.3% | 11 |
| 11d | hfv | Gavin Newsom | BuyNo85¢ → 83¢ | $4,268 | −$98 −2.3% | 17 |
| 11d | Favorable-Pepper-Brushing | Gavin Newsom | SellYes15¢ → 17¢ | $1,763 | −$176 −10.0% | — |
| 11d | 0xd640…480c2 fills | Jon Ossoff | BuyNo86¢ → 84¢ | $2,788 | −$41 −1.5% | 20 |
| 11d | Pokrw007 | Josh Shapiro | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $2,043 | +$13 +0.6% | 14 |
| 11d | HerbertAppreciator7 fills | Jon Ossoff | SellYes15¢ → 16¢ | $21,313 | −$943 −4.4% | — |
| 11d | Brikman | Phil Murphy | SellNo>99¢ | $3,676 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 11d | PhoenixDrifter | Josh Shapiro | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $1,042 | +$7 +0.6% | 14 |
| 11d | sfdhfzcxbv | Mark Kelly | SellNo97¢ → 98¢ | $4,165 | −$22 −0.5% | — |
| 11d | ertfdfg8 | James Talarico | SellNo98¢ → 97¢ | $1,316 | +$3 +0.3% | — |
| 12d | 0x4e8e…cbf8 | Hillary Clinton | SellNo>99¢ | $6,290 | +$3 +0.1% | — |
Hugewinner323,061 shares
risk-manager105,000 shares
Cadabra84,052 shares
DLEK60,520 shares
SteamRollerPennies3,500 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 17¢ for Gavin Newsom means the market gives it about 17%.