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| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 334 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 38 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 28, 2026 (ET)?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 31 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 42 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 4 | 53¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,604 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$36 −100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 385 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 239d | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BuyYes23¢ | $3 |
| 249d | Will Israel strike Gaza on February 17, 2026? | BuyYes43¢ | $3 |
| 249d | Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026? | BuyYes53¢ | $2 |
| 255d | US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? | BuyYes1¢ | $1 |
| 261d | US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? | BuyYes1¢ | $5 |
| 271d | Will the US next strike Iran on January 28, 2026 (ET)? | BuyYes3¢ | $1 |
| 271d | Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)? | BuyYes3¢ | $1 |
| 271d | Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)? | BuyYes2¢ | $1 |
| 271d | US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? | BuyYes2¢ | $5 |
| 271d | US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? | SellYes2¢ | $8 |
| 272d | US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | BuyYes3¢ | $10 |
| 272d | US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? | BuyYes1¢ | $5 |
| 281d | Israel strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? | BuyYes2¢ | $20 |
| 281d | Israel strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? | BuyYes1¢ | $16 |
| 281d | Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | BuyYes6¢ | $20 |
| 282d | US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? | BuyYes11¢ | $60 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 6 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.