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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 10 | 100% | — | +60 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| February 9 | 100% | +65 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| February 16 | 0% | −1 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 5 | 0% | −1 pts | −43 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 17 | 100% | +47 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| February 13 | 0% | −3 pts | −52 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 2 | 0% | −1 pts | −36 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 14 | 100% | +64 pts | +50 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| February 11 | 0% | 0 pts | −45 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 15 | 100% | +38 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| February 12 | 100% | +68 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| February 7 | 0% | 0 pts | −40 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 21 | 0% | −2 pts | −40 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 4 | 100% | +67 pts | +67 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| February 1 | 0% | 0 pts | −41 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 22 | 0% | −1 pts | −44 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 6 | 100% | +48 pts | +62 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| February 3 | 0% | −1 pts | −36 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 25 | 0% | −12 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 19 | 0% | 0 pts | −45 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 27 | 100% | −7 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| February 18 | 0% | −1 pts | −44 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 28 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 26 | 100% | +67 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| February 23 | 0% | −1 pts | −46 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 24 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 20 | 100% | +56 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| February 8 | 100% | +52 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 238d | Known-Slate | February 28 | BuyYes75¢ → 0¢ | $3,000 | −$3,000 −100% | 25 |
| 239d | cashy | February 27 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,048 | +$22 +1.1% | 20 |
| 239d |  bamesjond | February 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,823 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 239d | FatPeanut | February 26 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,747 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 239d | sytzeys | February 25 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,207 | −$9 −0.7% | — |
| 239d |  RIPTS | February 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,626 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 239d | Thoughtful-DrinkNew account | February 25 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,006 | −$25 −2.5% | — |
| 240d | RIPTS | February 25 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,137 | +$18 +1.6% | 20 |
| 240d |  PajamaSam3 fills | February 25 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $6,067 | +$240 +4.0% | 21 |
| 240d | 12100K | February 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,023 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 241d | PajamaSam | February 24 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,179 | +$36 +3.1% | 21 |
| 241d | Riddle-Master | February 22 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,070 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 241d | Trustinghorse | February 21 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,335 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 241d | RIPTS2 fills | February 21 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,784 | +$43 +1.5% | 20 |
| 242d | Riddle-Master | February 21 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,954 | −$25 −0.5% | — |
| 242d | onekey09 | February 21 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,627 | +$49 +0.5% | 20 |
| 243d | PajamaSam | February 22 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,653 | +$246 +5.3% | 20 |
| 243d | bamesjond | February 19 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,347 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 244d | JustMad | February 22 | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $4,263 | +$1,409 +33% | 22 |
| 244d | PajamaSam | February 21 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,999 | +$120 +6.0% | 20 |
| 244d |  whyareyoureadingthis | February 19 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,111 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 245d | 12100K2 fills | February 18 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,850 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 245d | Jiucai688 | February 19 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,163 | −$27 −2.4% | — |
| 246d | FatPeanut | February 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,041 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 246d | Favorable-SuspendersNew account | February 20 | SellYes100¢ | $1,692 | −$9 −0.5% | — |
| 246d | Favorable-SuspendersNew account | February 20 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,950 | +$254 +13% | 23 |
| 246d | Jiucai688 | February 19 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,049 | +$141 +13% | 20 |
| 247d | Excellent-FeatureNew account | February 18 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,311 | −$148 −11% | — |
| 247d | ratrd | February 18 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,232 | −$61 −4.9% | — |
| 247d | Agile-Spree | February 18 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,020 | +$100 +9.8% | 20 |
| 247d | Trustinghorse9 fills | February 16 | BuyNo>99¢ | $30,534 | +$35 +0.1% | 20 |
| 247d |  CiccioGamer893 fills | February 16 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,261 | +$37 +0.7% | 20 |
| 247d | ex14t17-42 | February 16 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,502 | −$33 −1.3% | — |
| 248d |  Rex416 | February 16 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,950 | +$50 +1.0% | 20 |
| 248d | NaKNiKoS | February 16 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,232 | −$56 −4.5% | — |
| 249d | Trustinghorse | February 17 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,523 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 249d | bamesjond | February 17 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,056 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 249d | Lukyyyyyyy | February 17 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,459 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 249d | Huludubu | February 17 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,836 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 249d | RIPTS | February 16 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,769 | +$21 +1.2% | 20 |
| 249d | notawinner99 | February 17 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,500 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 249d | Sonix4 fills | February 17 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,887 | +$32 +0.3% | 20 |
| 249d |  Nik- | February 17 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,986 | +$14 +0.2% | 20 |
| 249d | CiccioGamer89 | February 17 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,200 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 249d |  Car | February 17 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,110 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 249d | Lukyyyyyyy | February 17 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,116 | +$31 +1.0% | 20 |
| 249d | sytzeys | February 16 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,094 | +$44 +4.0% | 20 |
| 249d | NaKNiKoS | February 16 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,189 | +$99 +8.3% | 20 |
| 249d | ex14t17-42 | February 16 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,418 | +$117 +4.8% | 20 |
| 250d | Trustinghorse3 fills | February 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,538 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 250d | 12100K2 fills | February 13 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,323 | +$15 +0.7% | 20 |
| 250d | y13oficial | February 17 | BuyNo67¢ → 0¢ | $1,761 | −$1,761 −100% | 20 |
| 250d |  Warren-Buffett | February 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,390 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 250d | Trustinghorse3 fills | February 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $16,883 | +$42 +0.3% | 20 |
| 250d | y13oficial | February 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,219 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 250d | Gilifi | February 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,139 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 250d | pelik2 fills | February 15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,488 | +$52 +0.8% | 20 |
| 250d |  Whylik | February 15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,195 | +$16 +1.3% | 20 |
| 250d | Car | February 15 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,460 | +$160 +6.5% | 20 |
| 250d | Whylik | February 15 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,409 | −$151 −11% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for February 10 means the market gives it about 100%.