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Polymarket wallet 0x856de316c4bb62d7e32b6de8b9befd7f026ce636 · on Polymarket since Nov 27, 2025 · also shown as Agonizing-Knock
| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 1?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 10 | 98¢ → 100¢ | $10 | +$0 +1.5% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 10 | 99¢ → 100¢ | $10 | +$0 +1.3% |
| Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 4 | 97¢ → 100¢ | $4 | +$0 +3.3% |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 3 | 92¢ → 100¢ | $3 | +$0 +8.6% |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 3 | 93¢ → 100¢ | $3 | +$0 +8.0% |
| Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 3 | 93¢ → 100¢ | $3 | +$0 +7.5% |
| Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1 | 100¢ → 100¢ | $1 | +$0 +0.5% |
| Kings vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5Settled - ready to redeem | Over | 8 | 49¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 203d | Kings vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5 | BuyOver49¢ | $4 |
| 231d | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? | BuyYes99¢ | $10 |
| 231d | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 1? | BuyYes98¢ | $10 |
| 270d | Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | BuyNo93¢ | $3 |
| 270d | Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)? | BuyYes97¢ | $4 |
| 270d | Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes93¢ | $3 |
| 270d | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BuyYes92¢ | $3 |
| 324d | Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday? | BuyNo100¢ | $1 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 50 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.