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Polymarket wallet 0xa40d20ef0b4cd17bd618479ab0f76e697384de17 · on Polymarket since Mar 16, 2026 · also shown as Thorny-Physics
| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 47 | 44¢ → 38¢ | $18 | −$3 −15% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 500 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Netanyahu out by June 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 56 | 18¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 16 | 30¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 17 | 29¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,000 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Netanyahu out by March 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 357 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$17 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 214d | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | BuyYes44¢ | $21 |
| 215d | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET | BuyDown29¢ | $5 |
| 215d | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET | SellUp75¢ | $26 |
| 215d | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET | BuyUp37¢ | $13 |
| 215d | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET | BuyDown30¢ | $5 |
| 215d | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET | BuyDown1¢ | $5 |
| 215d | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET | SellUp99¢ | $7 |
| 215d | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET | BuyUp70¢ | $5 |
| 215d | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | BuyYes<1¢ | $1 |
| 215d | Netanyahu out by March 31? | BuyYes5¢ | $10 |
| 215d | Netanyahu out by June 30? | BuyYes18¢ | $10 |
| 215d | Netanyahu out by March 31? | BuyYes5¢ | $7 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 2 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.