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| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 62 | 80¢ → 89¢ | $55 | +$6 +11% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 5d | No | 57 | 84¢ → 94¢ | $53 | +$5 +11% |
| Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?Ends in 69d | No | 55 | 87¢ → 96¢ | $52 | +$5 +9.8% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | No | 28 | 85¢ → 81¢ | $23 | −$1 −5.3% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 75 | 66¢ → 10¢ | $7 | −$42 −86% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15d | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BuyNo85¢ | $24 |
| 15d | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BuyNo84¢ | $48 |
| 17d | Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad? | BuyNo87¢ | $48 |
| 26d | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | BuyYes66¢ | $50 |
| 29d | Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by December 31, 2026? | BuyYes80¢ | $50 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 50 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.