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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 80% | +3 pts | +3 pts | 80¢ · 80¢ (<1¢) | $1.01M | ended |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 21% | −2 pts | −3 pts | 20¢ · 21¢ (1¢) | $780K | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h |  MisTKy | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyNo80¢ | $13,720 | −$86 −0.6% | 11 |
| 1h | MisTKy11 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes22¢ → 21¢ | $25,890 | −$1,497 −5.8% | 30 |
| 1h | King0003 | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes21¢ | $1,014 | −$2 −0.2% | 10 |
| 1h |  TheGregorSamsa | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellYes80¢ | $1,518 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 2h | ColinHuang2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes79¢ → 80¢ | $2,082 | +$28 +1.3% | 10 |
| 2h | Zanchetta | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes19¢ → 21¢ | $1,003 | −$79 −7.9% | — |
| 2h |  kirito005 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyNo79¢ → 80¢ | $12,025 | +$137 +1.1% | 11 |
| 2h |  Maragaravalhitiskelerson2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes80¢ | $3,221 | −$26 −0.8% | 10 |
| 2h | dromedaryy | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyNo20¢ | $1,359 | +$27 +2.0% | 12 |
| 2h | Grun711 | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes80¢ | $7,739 | −$73 −0.9% | 10 |
| 2h | xxzws19 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes78¢ → 80¢ | $37,765 | +$752 +2.0% | 12 |
| 2h | berpasan2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes80¢ | $7,090 | −$13 −0.2% | 10 |
| 2h |  wagwanshawty2 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes20¢ → 21¢ | $16,638 | +$342 +2.1% | 28 |
| 2h | Hamagi | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes80¢ | $3,377 | +$0 +0.0% | 10 |
| 2h | venomzk12 | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes80¢ | $1,770 | +$1 +0.0% | 10 |
| 2h | nicocardonac | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellYes79¢ → 80¢ | $1,244 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 3h | 0x91f7…be592 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes20¢ → 21¢ | $8,722 | −$213 −2.4% | — |
| 3h | 0x49cf…5b3e3 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes21¢ | $5,426 | −$197 −3.6% | 20 |
| 3h | StarryPath2 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyNo80¢ | $18,992 | −$35 −0.2% | 11 |
| 3h | eventalpha26 | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellNo21¢ → 20¢ | $28,792 | +$825 +2.9% | — |
| 3h | Rundown-Regard3 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes78¢ → 80¢ | $4,708 | +$68 +1.4% | 10 |
| 3h |  gclaro | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes20¢ → 21¢ | $2,167 | −$54 −2.5% | — |
| 3h | Castiell2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes79¢ → 80¢ | $3,020 | +$41 +1.4% | 10 |
| 3h | payj | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes79¢ → 80¢ | $1,031 | +$9 +0.9% | 10 |
| 3h | eventalpha262 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes21¢ | $6,212 | +$249 +4.0% | — |
| 3h |  Lolakis4 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes22¢ → 21¢ | $11,305 | +$711 +6.3% | — |
| 3h | 0x49cf…5b3e3 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes22¢ → 21¢ | $5,495 | +$380 +6.9% | — |
| 4h |  iForgor | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes78¢ → 80¢ | $1,170 | +$24 +2.1% | 10 |
| 4h | 0xvrx | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes78¢ → 80¢ | $1,643 | +$32 +1.9% | 10 |
| 4h | Talkative-Newsstand | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes78¢ → 80¢ | $8,000 | +$140 +1.8% | 10 |
| 4h | spendingmoney | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes78¢ → 80¢ | $1,995 | +$46 +2.3% | 10 |
| 4h | Lined-Billion | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes78¢ → 80¢ | $2,500 | +$59 +2.4% | 10 |
| 4h |  berbisminsk | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes78¢ → 80¢ | $1,000 | +$25 +2.5% | 10 |
| 5h |  SheepToken | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellYes77¢ → 80¢ | $3,254 | −$95 −2.9% | — |
| 5h | lcm272 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes77¢ → 80¢ | $4,359 | +$120 +2.8% | 10 |
| 5h |  AlbertoFGomez | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes77¢ → 80¢ | $1,744 | +$59 +3.4% | 10 |
| 6h | zoroastrox | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyNo23¢ → 20¢ | $1,435 | −$168 −12% | 12 |
| 7h | z13cc | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes77¢ → 80¢ | $2,000 | +$66 +3.3% | 10 |
| 8h | 0x49cf…5b3e | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellYes77¢ → 80¢ | $2,007 | −$70 −3.5% | — |
| 8h | Belated-Bonus | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes77¢ → 80¢ | $5,756 | +$163 +2.8% | 10 |
| 8h | Melody626 | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes77¢ → 80¢ | $26,696 | +$937 +3.5% | 12 |
| 8h | simbasjungles2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes77¢ → 80¢ | $3,232 | +$114 +3.5% | 10 |
| 8h | MrTradeBR | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes24¢ → 21¢ | $1,950 | −$284 −15% | 13 |
| 8h |  fo4 | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes77¢ → 80¢ | $1,227 | +$43 +3.5% | 10 |
| 9h | tiagsluiz1 | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes22¢ → 21¢ | $5,249 | +$379 +7.2% | — |
| 9h | Asfalto4 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes78¢ → 80¢ | $14,489 | +$295 +2.0% | 11 |
| 9h | Raiopolicia | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes77¢ → 80¢ | $14,308 | +$507 +3.5% | 11 |
| 9h | apostinhanomito3 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes76¢ → 80¢ | $14,500 | +$610 +4.2% | 11 |
| 10h | ravgs | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes25¢ → 21¢ | $2,550 | −$458 −18% | 15 |
| 10h | Tattered-Ephyra2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellYes77¢ → 80¢ | $3,666 | −$101 −2.8% | — |
| 10h | Dutzzz | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes23¢ → 21¢ | $1,398 | +$152 +11% | — |
| 10h | Wretched-Cartel-Dulcimer2 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyNo75¢ → 80¢ | $2,889 | +$173 +6.0% | 13 |
| 10h |  Lucerys7 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyNo77¢ → 80¢ | $8,905 | +$238 +2.7% | 11 |
| 10h | hereIamen | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes75¢ → 80¢ | $1,357 | +$84 +6.2% | 10 |
| 10h | 0x49cf…5b3e | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes75¢ → 80¢ | $1,954 | +$123 +6.3% | 10 |
| 10h | Dutzzz | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes27¢ → 21¢ | $1,495 | −$339 −23% | 12 |
| 10h | StudentMoney5 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyNo77¢ → 80¢ | $10,286 | +$334 +3.2% | 11 |
| 10h | StudentMoney | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellYes74¢ → 80¢ | $2,099 | −$159 −7.6% | — |
| 10h | Jmeryn3 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes25¢ → 21¢ | $26,614 | −$4,814 −18% | 28 |
| 10h | hernanesjr2 | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes26¢ → 21¢ | $2,400 | −$508 −21% | 14 |
ScottyNooo263,531 sharesA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 80¢ for Flávio Bolsonaro means the market gives it about 80%.