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| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 96 | 92¢ → 100¢ | $96 | +$8 +8.7% |
| AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 339d | Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? | BuyYes92¢ | $18 |
| 339d | Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? | BuyYes92¢ | $24 |
| 339d | Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? | BuyYes92¢ | $46 |
| 342d | AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025? | BuyYes1¢ | $1 |
| 342d | Will federal employees receive back pay after the government shutdown? | SellYes97¢ | $78 |
| 343d | Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? | SellYes6¢ | $2 |
| 344d | Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? | BuyYes8¢ | $1 |
| 344d | Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? | BuyYes8¢ | $2 |
| 345d | Will federal employees receive back pay after the government shutdown? | BuyYes96¢ | $77 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 2 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.