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Polymarket wallet 0xbb2bd292846cb62fe105f33be4f52f6823a2c5ca · on Polymarket since Sep 21, 2026 · also shown as Bare-Originality-Sir
| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 1,241 | 97¢ → 97¢ | $1,202 | +$2 +0.2% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Ends in 68d | No | 326 | 92¢ → 90¢ | $292 | −$8 −2.7% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 104 | 96¢ → 97¢ | $101 | +$1 +0.9% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?Ends in 37d | No | 110 | 91¢ → 90¢ | $98 | −$2 −1.7% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 119 | 84¢ → 79¢ | $93 | −$7 −6.6% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 61 | 82¢ → 98¢ | $60 | +$10 +19% |
| Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 45 | 22¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12d | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | BuyNo84¢ | $100 |
| 12d | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026? | BuyNo91¢ | $100 |
| 12d | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BuyNo96¢ | $100 |
| 12d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo92¢ | $300 |
| 12d | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | BuyNo97¢ | $1,200 |
| 32d | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BuyNo82¢ | $50 |
| 32d | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 | BuyNo97¢ | $30 |
| 33d | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo97¢ | $100 |
| 33d | Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 30? | BuyNo22¢ | $10 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 2 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.