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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 2% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 2¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $115K | in 8d |
| December 31 | 22% | +2 pts | +8 pts | 21¢ · 22¢ (1¢) | $9.67K | in 69d |
| March 31, 2027 | 35% | −3 pts | +5 pts | 34¢ · 36¢ (2¢) | $9.4K | in 159d |
| August 31, 2027 | 60% | −1 pts | +3 pts | 59¢ · 61¢ (2¢) | — | in 312d |
| November 30 | 12% | −1 pts | +4 pts | 11¢ · 12¢ (1¢) | $6.07K | in 38d |
| February 28, 2027 | 28% | −4 pts | +2 pts | 28¢ · 29¢ (1¢) | $3.06K | in 128d |
| January 31, 2027 | 25% | −2 pts | +3 pts | 24¢ · 25¢ (1¢) | $2K | in 100d |
| May 31, 2027 | 52% | +1 pts | +5 pts | 51¢ · 52¢ (1¢) | $1.24K | in 220d |
| June 30, 2027 | 54% | −1 pts | +5 pts | 53¢ · 55¢ (2¢) | $992 | in 250d |
| October 31, 2027 | 66% | — | +4 pts | 65¢ · 67¢ (2¢) | $463 | in 373d |
| December 31, 2027 | 72% | — | +4 pts | 71¢ · 72¢ (1¢) | $424 | in 434d |
| April 30, 2027 | 44% | +2 pts | +6 pts | 43¢ · 45¢ (2¢) | $384 | in 189d |
| November 30, 2027 | 69% | +1 pts | +6 pts | 68¢ · 70¢ (2¢) | $310 | in 403d |
| September 30, 2027 | 64% | +1 pts | +4 pts | 63¢ · 64¢ (1¢) | $150 | in 342d |
| July 31, 2027 | 58% | — | +7 pts | 57¢ · 59¢ (2¢) | $20 | in 281d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12h | LLL2211 | February 28, 2027 | BuyNo69¢ → 72¢ | $1,300 | +$48 +3.7% | 40 |
| 13h | Madsolbro | October 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 98¢ | $4,000 | +$11 +0.3% | 20 |
| 14h | kela.mov | March 31, 2027 | BuyNo63¢ → 65¢ | $3,491 | +$117 +3.4% | 40 |
| 16h |  suraxy | October 31 | SellNo96¢ → 98¢ | $2,882 | −$44 −1.5% | — |
| 19h |  Lolakis | October 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 98¢ | $1,697 | +$22 +1.3% | 20 |
| 20h | liamweber | October 31 | SellNo95¢ → 98¢ | $1,070 | −$28 −2.6% | — |
| 20h |  MisTKy | October 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 98¢ | $8,061 | +$88 +1.1% | 21 |
| 20h | hfncj | October 31 | SellNo95¢ → 98¢ | $1,527 | −$41 −2.7% | — |
| 20h | wan123 | October 31 | BuyYes3¢ → 2¢ | $1,297 | −$256 −20% | 23 |
| 1d | guohi | August 31, 2027 | BuyNo40¢ | $1,680 | $0 0.0% | 21 |
| 1d | phengophobe | December 31 | BuyNo80¢ → 79¢ | $2,000 | −$38 −1.9% | 31 |
| 1d | DedBanzay | December 31 | BuyYes19¢ → 22¢ | $1,700 | +$216 +13% | 37 |
| 1d |  BigRabbit2 fills | December 31 | SellYes20¢ → 22¢ | $3,046 | −$286 −9.4% | — |
| 1d |  bigdihhh8882 fills | December 31 | BuyNo84¢ → 79¢ | $2,065 | −$135 −6.5% | 29 |
| 1d | WarriorH | December 31 | BuyNo82¢ → 79¢ | $1,059 | −$50 −4.7% | 25 |
| 1d | bigdihhh8882 fills | October 31 | BuyNo98¢ | $2,378 | −$2 −0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | Offensive-Complexity-EncounterNew account | October 31 | SellNo97¢ → 98¢ | $9,886 | −$23 −0.2% | — |
| 1d | tr10003 fills | October 31 | SellNo82¢ → 98¢ | $8,400 | −$1,633 −19% | — |
| 1d | Lamantinka3 fills | October 31 | SellNo88¢ → 98¢ | $8,443 | −$924 −11% | — |
| 2d | Offensive-Complexity-EncounterNew account | October 31 | BuyNo98¢ | $10,000 | −$91 −0.9% | 20 |
| 2d |  tsybka3 fills | May 31, 2027 | SellYes52¢ | $5,099 | +$18 +0.4% | — |
| 2d | sdhyky3 fills | October 31 | SellNo86¢ → 98¢ | $21,517 | −$2,870 −13% | — |
| 2d | ONLY-Fund | December 31 | BuyNo79¢ | $1,870 | −$5 −0.3% | 31 |
| 2d | aarco | December 31 | SellNo79¢ | $1,058 | +$7 +0.7% | — |
| 2d |  zxdfbdfgngcxv | December 31 | SellNo78¢ → 79¢ | $1,754 | −$9 −0.5% | — |
| 2d |  smellyEllie6 fills | October 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 98¢ | $16,948 | +$589 +3.5% | 22 |
| 2d | smellyEllie2 fills | October 31 | SellNo97¢ → 98¢ | $7,376 | −$38 −0.5% | — |
| 2d |  SirHarryOakes2 fills | June 30, 2027 | BuyNo49¢ → 46¢ | $2,000 | −$132 −6.6% | 40 |
| 3d | whoamipythok | October 31 | SellNo96¢ → 98¢ | $2,403 | −$36 −1.5% | — |
| 3d | tieguanyin | May 31, 2027 | SellYes49¢ → 52¢ | $5,561 | −$284 −5.1% | — |
| 3d | guagua11 | May 31, 2027 | SellNo51¢ → 49¢ | $5,788 | +$284 +4.9% | — |
| 3d | ciqiu | April 30, 2027 | SellNo61¢ → 56¢ | $2,176 | +$178 +8.2% | — |
| 3d | hfv2 fills | October 31 | SellNo96¢ → 98¢ | $7,607 | −$140 −1.8% | — |
| 3d | xoua | January 31, 2027 | BuyNo78¢ → 76¢ | $1,283 | −$40 −3.1% | 35 |
| 3d | 0x6548355541158556441 | November 30 | SellNo91¢ → 89¢ | $1,157 | +$32 +2.7% | — |
| 3d |  Car | March 31, 2027 | BuyYes31¢ → 35¢ | $3,100 | +$400 +13% | 44 |
| 3d | Strarper | October 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 98¢ | $4,865 | +$13 +0.3% | 20 |
| 3d | 0x06d3…b956 | March 31, 2027 | SellNo69¢ → 65¢ | $1,014 | +$59 +5.8% | — |
| 3d | 0x65483555411585564412 fills | December 31 | SellNo86¢ → 79¢ | $2,547 | +$223 +8.8% | — |
| 3d | zxdfbdfgngcxv | October 31 | SellNo97¢ → 98¢ | $1,938 | −$13 −0.7% | — |
| 4d | Total-Main2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo86¢ → 79¢ | $10,164 | −$843 −8.3% | 30 |
| 4d | tsybka | May 31, 2027 | BuyYes47¢ → 52¢ | $4,188 | +$410 +9.8% | 41 |
| 4d | Total-Main3 fills | January 31, 2027 | BuyNo79¢ → 76¢ | $8,636 | −$349 −4.0% | 34 |
| 4d | BunCaCham | October 31 | SellNo97¢ → 98¢ | $7,298 | −$37 −0.5% | — |
| 4d | Baristas2 fills | October 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 98¢ | $3,928 | +$42 +1.1% | 20 |
| 4d | puer | May 31, 2027 | BuyNo54¢ → 49¢ | $6,992 | −$712 −10% | 40 |
| 4d | guagua11 | May 31, 2027 | BuyNo54¢ → 49¢ | $6,128 | −$624 −10% | 40 |
| 4d | ciqiu | April 30, 2027 | BuyNo61¢ → 56¢ | $2,176 | −$178 −8.2% | 40 |
| 4d | BigRabbit | December 31 | BuyYes14¢ → 22¢ | $1,400 | +$750 +54% | 34 |
| 5d | Vinan | November 30 | BuyNo93¢ → 89¢ | $1,400 | −$68 −4.8% | 24 |
| 6d | Kwon123 | December 31 | BuyNo87¢ → 79¢ | $1,129 | −$110 −9.8% | 24 |
| 6d | browne | December 31 | SellNo87¢ → 79¢ | $2,444 | +$242 +9.9% | — |
| 6d | PashaAsOracul | December 31 | SellNo88¢ → 79¢ | $2,759 | +$298 +11% | — |
| 6d | Car2 fills | December 31 | SellYes17¢ → 22¢ | $2,802 | −$763 −27% | — |
| 6d | Car | January 31, 2027 | SellYes20¢ → 25¢ | $1,572 | −$333 −21% | — |
| 7d | smartrandom | October 31 | BuyNo98¢ | $1,467 | −$4 −0.3% | 20 |
| 7d | tr10005 fills | October 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 98¢ | $12,173 | +$527 +4.3% | 22 |
| 7d | 881112 | December 31 | BuyYes14¢ → 22¢ | $1,120 | +$600 +54% | 30 |
| 7d |  BMM-1 | December 31 | BuyNo86¢ → 79¢ | $5,475 | −$477 −8.7% | 29 |
| 7d | hfv | January 31, 2027 | BuyNo79¢ → 76¢ | $1,029 | −$46 −4.4% | 34 |
Arbguy18,406 sharesMisTKy26,149 shares
How.Dare.You20,076 sharessmellyEllie16,569 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 2¢ for October 31 means the market gives it about 2%.