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Polymarket wallet 0xd6794a49a38e3b989e860037d6da38fd2d957d0b · on Polymarket since Oct 21, 2026 · also shown as Aromatic-Pattern-Hood
| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027?Ends in 433d | Yes | 136 | 7¢ → 8¢ | $10 | +$0 +3.5% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Ends in 7d | Yes | 303 | 2¢ → 2¢ | $6 | +$0 +1.1% |
| Will Iran target an Arab country by November 15, 2026?Ends in 22d | Yes | 6 | 83¢ → 71¢ | $4 | −$1 −15% |
| Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?Ends in 37d | Yes | 13 | 39¢ → 28¢ | $4 | −$1 −28% |
| France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 56 | 9¢ → 5¢ | $3 | −$2 −44% |
| Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 21 | 24¢ → 12¢ | $2 | −$3 −51% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?Ends in 7d | Yes | 6 | 18¢ → 35¢ | $2 | +$1 +94% |
| Will UKMTO publish 8-11 notices between October 26-November 1?Ends in 8d | Yes | 5 | 43¢ → 38¢ | $2 | −$0 −12% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Ends in 6h | No | 63 | 16¢ → 1¢ | $1 | −$9 −91% |
| Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 18 | 5¢ → 3¢ | $1 | −$0 −45% |
| Will Vance peak at Category 4?Ends in 11d | Yes | 5 | 38¢ → 1¢ | $0 | −$2 −96% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8h | Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026? | BuyYes5¢ | $1 |
| 19h | France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? | BuyYes9¢ | $5 |
| 20h | France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027? | BuyYes7¢ | $10 |
| 1d | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | BuyYes3¢ | $1 |
| 1d | Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30? | BuyYes39¢ | $5 |
| 1d | Will Vance peak at Category 4? | BuyYes38¢ | $2 |
| 1d | Will UKMTO publish 8-11 notices between October 26-November 1? | BuyYes43¢ | $2 |
| 1d | Will Iran target an Arab country by November 15, 2026? | BuyYes83¢ | $5 |
| 1d | Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by December 31, 2026? | BuyYes24¢ | $5 |
| 2d | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October? | BuyYes18¢ | $1 |
| 2d | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | BuyYes2¢ | $5 |
| 2d | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? | BuyNo16¢ | $10 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 50 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.