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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 6% | −3 pts | — | 5¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | $106K | in 7d |
| December 31 | 16% | +2 pts | — | 15¢ · 16¢ (1¢) | $69.3K | in 68d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51m |  LiquidatedDegen | December 31 | BuyYes16¢ | $2,500 | −$78 −3.1% | 13 |
| 1h | LiquidatedDegen | October 31 | SellYes7¢ → 6¢ | $1,046 | +$224 +21% | — |
| 3h |  MisTKy4 fills | October 31 | BuyNo91¢ → 95¢ | $30,944 | +$1,037 +3.4% | 10 |
| 3h |  TBill12 fills | October 31 | BuyNo90¢ → 95¢ | $6,061 | +$269 +4.4% | 5 |
| 3h | ledgersurpol | October 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 95¢ | $2,000 | +$54 +2.7% | 4 |
| 3h | MultiQuant24hAgent3 fills | October 31 | BuyNo91¢ → 95¢ | $11,659 | +$439 +3.8% | 7 |
| 15h | afaus | October 31 | BuyNo91¢ → 95¢ | $1,918 | +$74 +3.8% | 4 |
| 20h | accessability | October 31 | BuyNo90¢ → 95¢ | $2,000 | +$100 +5.0% | 5 |
| 23h | Miniature-Sauerkraut-Pack2 fills | December 31 | SellNo86¢ → 85¢ | $69,879 | +$1,434 +2.1% | — |
| 23h | thewherewithal2 fills | October 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 95¢ | $2,291 | +$62 +2.7% | 4 |
| 1d | MisTKy2 fills | October 31 | SellNo91¢ → 95¢ | $3,954 | −$152 −3.8% | — |
| 1d |  BTCbyBTC2 fills | October 31 | BuyYes9¢ → 6¢ | $2,969 | −$1,221 −41% | 15 |
| 1d | StarryPath | December 31 | BuyNo85¢ | $11,830 | −$136 −1.2% | 11 |
| 1d | Miniature-Sauerkraut-Pack | December 31 | BuyNo85¢ | $109,884 | −$34 −0.0% | 16 |
| 1d |  Istaroth | December 31 | BuyNo88¢ → 85¢ | $1,780 | −$71 −4.0% | 5 |
| 1d |  bigdihhh8882 fills | December 31 | BuyNo85¢ | $3,678 | −$40 −1.1% | 6 |
| 2d | GOLADS963 fills | October 31 | BuyNo93¢ → 95¢ | $4,639 | +$90 +1.9% | 5 |
| 2d |  scottilicious | October 31 | BuyNo89¢ → 95¢ | $4,288 | +$246 +5.7% | 5 |
| 3d |  HowToBasic | France declares state of emergency by October 21, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,500 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 3d | 2d1d7318-b632-4243-bf81-f05a4105b6e4 | France declares state of emergency by October 21, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,170 | +$10 +0.8% | 4 |
| 4d |  GoriIIa | October 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $4,146 | +$22 +0.5% | 5 |
| 4d | GoriIIa | December 31 | BuyNo85¢ | $7,013 | −$20 −0.3% | 8 |
| 4d |  suraxy | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 85¢ | $1,000 | +$17 +1.7% | 5 |
| 4d |  Tenebrus7 | October 31 | BuyNo90¢ → 95¢ | $2,134 | +$107 +5.0% | 5 |
| 4d | 0xa832…abf83 fills | October 31 | BuyNo87¢ → 95¢ | $3,861 | +$349 +9.0% | 5 |
| 4d | Max3 | December 31 | BuyNo82¢ → 85¢ | $2,926 | +$94 +3.2% | 6 |
| 4d | Max3 | France declares state of emergency by October 21, 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,173 | +$79 +1.9% | 4 |
| 4d | TBill1 | December 31 | BuyNo78¢ → 85¢ | $2,117 | +$176 +8.3% | 6 |
| 4d | hfv | France declares state of emergency by October 21, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,328 | −$32 −2.4% | — |
| 4d | pieped | October 31 | BuyNo86¢ → 95¢ | $1,720 | +$170 +9.9% | 5 |
| 5d |  tetrase | October 31 | BuyNo88¢ → 95¢ | $2,487 | +$184 +7.4% | 5 |
| 5d | bonalddrunk | October 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 95¢ | $1,320 | +$40 +3.1% | 4 |
| 5d |  vinii | October 31 | BuyNo86¢ → 95¢ | $1,582 | +$149 +9.4% | 5 |
BTCbyBTC35,288 shares
ItrustJesus10,019 sharesLiquidatedDegen7,379 shares
Parz1vaI17,665 sharesTenebrus76,804 sharestetrase5,274 sharesscottilicious4,798 sharesGoriIIa4,411 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 6¢ for October 31 means the market gives it about 6%.