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| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 6 | 89¢ → 100¢ | $6 | +$1 +12% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 197 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 176d | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo94¢ | $13 |
| 198d | Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? | BuyYes89¢ | $5 |
| 199d | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo94¢ | $10 |
| 199d | US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? | SellYes>99¢ | $6 |
| 199d | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SellYes53¢ | $5 |
| 201d | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo94¢ | $3 |
| 201d | US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? | BuyYes48¢ | $3 |
| 202d | Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | SellYes72¢ | $4 |
| 206d | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BuyYes22¢ | $2 |
| 206d | Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | BuyYes35¢ | $2 |
| 216d | Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SellYes86¢ | $3 |
| 216d | Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BuyYes87¢ | $3 |
| 217d | Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? | BuyYes1¢ | $2 |
| 217d | Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines | BuySaint Louis Billikens12¢ | $2 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 6 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.