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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23d |  prophet-spaces | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $7,510 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 23d | LLLLLukee | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,002 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 25d | Lisbon | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,815 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 26d |  noreasapa3 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $23,481 | +$53 +0.2% | 20 |
| 28d | janeju1029 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,996 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 29d | prophet-spaces2 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,003 | +$14 +0.2% | 20 |
| 30d | Glissada7783671 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,650 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 30d | 15gg | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,048 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 31d | LLLLLukee | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,000 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 32d | thisissocool11 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,089 | −$11 −0.5% | — |
| 33d | thisissocool11 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,985 | +$15 +0.3% | 20 |
| 34d |  videlake | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,083 | −$4 −0.4% | — |
| 35d | 436345 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,155 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 35d | Lisbon3 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,640 | +$61 +0.9% | 20 |
| 47d | toddler | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,020 | +$7 +0.7% | 20 |
| 47d | HAOI | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,554 | +$11 +0.7% | 20 |
| 52d | momo5132 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $12,379 | +$621 +5.0% | 20 |
| 52d | Trained-Notion | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,394 | +$44 +0.8% | 20 |
| 64d | fqyfqy | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,523 | −$36 −1.0% | — |
| 69d | redpanda135 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,223 | +$18 +0.8% | 20 |
| 69d | VaughnRook | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,090 | −$10 −0.9% | — |
| 69d | VaughnRook | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,091 | +$9 +0.8% | 20 |
| 73d | minisobaby | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,800 | +$58 +1.2% | 20 |
| 75d | Callousio | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,184 | −$16 −1.3% | — |
| 75d | QuinlanReign | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,086 | −$14 −1.3% | — |
| 75d |  Giorgio2 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,482 | +$18 +1.2% | 20 |
| 76d | QuinlanReign | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,087 | +$13 +1.2% | 20 |
| 77d |  fxwd12345 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,844 | −$51 −1.3% | — |
| 77d | LioranBlade | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,184 | −$16 −1.3% | — |
| 77d | LioranBlade | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,186 | +$14 +1.2% | 20 |
| 77d | JasperKane | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,086 | −$14 −1.3% | — |
| 77d | JasperKane | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,087 | +$13 +1.2% | 20 |
| 78d | EliasVoss | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,184 | −$16 −1.3% | — |
| 78d | EliasVoss | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,186 | +$14 +1.2% | 20 |
| 82d | Avamax3 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $29,600 | −$436 −1.5% | — |
| 83d |  FXC | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,296 | −$47 −1.4% | — |
| 84d | 0x5bd9…55eb | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,994 | −$46 −1.5% | — |
| 84d | 0x5bd9…55eb | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$40 +1.3% | 20 |
| 84d | 0x6888…1c1414 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $42,007 | +$553 +1.3% | 20 |
| 84d | 0xaa18…437915 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $45,007 | +$593 +1.3% | 20 |
| 84d | 0xaa18…43793 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,001 | −$119 −1.3% | — |
| 84d | 0x6888…1c142 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,001 | −$79 −1.3% | — |
| 84d | 0x74f1…d8df17 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $51,324 | +$676 +1.3% | 20 |
| 84d | 0xa10b…97c217 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $51,324 | +$676 +1.3% | 20 |
| 84d | 0x5efd…68e016 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $48,129 | +$631 +1.3% | 20 |
| 84d | 0x5495…9eb715 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $45,303 | +$597 +1.3% | 20 |
| 92d | WarpSpeed | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $8,304 | −$153 −1.8% | — |
| 95d | xenonliu2 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,399 | −$83 −1.5% | — |
| 98d | Outgoing-Parable | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,037 | −$16 −1.5% | — |
| 99d | Practical-Memo | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,312 | −$20 −1.5% | — |
| 101d | Callousio | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,183 | +$17 +1.4% | 20 |
| 108d | Avamax | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,348 | +$127 +1.5% | 20 |
| 111d | willydh | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,279 | −$18 −1.4% | — |
| 112d | LuLeo | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,693 | +$81 +1.2% | 20 |
| 113d |  OiOiOiCxxtCxxtCxxt | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,033 | −$19 −1.9% | — |
| 114d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,773 | −$68 −2.5% | — |
| 114d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,142 | +$64 +2.0% | 20 |
| 114d | janeju1029 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $20,000 | +$459 +2.3% | 20 |
| 116d | Neglected-Mop | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,406 | −$35 −2.5% | — |
| 116d | LZ06152 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,187 | −$114 −2.7% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.