| Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?Ends in 72d | Yes | 25 | 28¢ → 24¢ | $6 | −$1 −17% |
| Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?Ends in 253d | Yes | 8 | 63¢ → 68¢ | $5 | +$0 +7.9% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 10d | Yes | 25 | 20¢ → 20¢ | $5 | −$0 −2.5% |
| Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by March 31, 2027?Ends in 162d | No | 10 | 43¢ → 48¢ | $5 | +$0 +10% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Ends in 72d | No | 6 | 86¢ → 80¢ | $5 | −$0 −7.0% |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?Ends in 41d | No | 5 | 66¢ → 86¢ | $4 | +$1 +30% |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 9d | No | 138 | 7¢ → 3¢ | $4 | −$6 −61% |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" in October?Ends in 10d | Yes | 8 | 83¢ → 46¢ | $4 | −$3 −45% |
| Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?Ends in 41d | Yes | 19 | 25¢ → 20¢ | $4 | −$1 −22% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Ends in 72d | No | 5 | 65¢ → 71¢ | $4 | +$0 +8.5% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?Ends in 72d | No | 5 | 63¢ → 70¢ | $3 | +$0 +11% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Ends in 72d | No | 5 | 63¢ → 69¢ | $3 | +$0 +9.5% |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?Ends in 41d | Yes | 5 | 42¢ → 65¢ | $3 | +$1 +55% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?Ends in 103d | Yes | 9 | 16¢ → 33¢ | $3 | +$2 +106% |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 72d | Yes | 5 | 40¢ → 51¢ | $3 | +$1 +28% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?Ends ended | Yes | 10 | 28¢ → 20¢ | $2 | −$1 −30% |
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 72d | Yes | 5 | 33¢ → 38¢ | $2 | +$0 +14% |
| Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?Ends in 72d | Yes | 5 | 28¢ → 30¢ | $1 | +$0 +5.4% |
| Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?Ends in 72d | Yes | 5 | 33¢ → 28¢ | $1 | −$0 −14% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Ends in 72d | Yes | 5 | 30¢ → 26¢ | $1 | −$0 −14% |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?Ends in 72d | Yes | 5 | 36¢ → 21¢ | $1 | −$1 −42% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - October 1, 10:20PM-10:25PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| XRP Up or Down - September 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| XRP Up or Down - September 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| XRP Up or Down - September 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 12:30PM-12:35PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 12:35AM-12:40AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:35PM-11:40PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 100-101°F on August 19?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 25 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - October 6, 5:30PM-5:35PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| XRP Up or Down - September 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on August 22?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 35 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - September 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - October 6, 3:50AM-3:55AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - October 6, 4:00AM-4:05AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - September 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 50 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - September 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - October 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| XRP Up or Down - September 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 7:05PM-7:10PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| XRP Up or Down - September 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 8:35PM-8:40PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - September 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - September 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - September 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 8:10PM-8:15PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 12:20AM-12:25AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Dogecoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:30PM-6:35PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| XRP Up or Down - September 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| XRP Up or Down - September 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - October 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| XRP Up or Down - September 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - October 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - September 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 24, 12:20AM-12:25AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 20?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 5 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - September 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on August 19?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 12:00AM-12:05AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 10 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
